Pētījumu centrs SKDS: final polls against certified results

1 election measured against the certified count.

Based in: Latvia
Countries polled: Latvia
Final polls held: 1 (1 set against a certified count)
Modes: mixed: face-to-face interviews at respondents' homes (50%) and web survey (50%; quota sample)
Website: skds.lv

Latvia legislative election 2026

for Latvijas Televīzija / LSM (published by LSM with LTV graphics; the article text does not name the commissioner) · fieldwork 2026-09-04 – 2026-09-16 · published 2026-09-25 · n = 2,035 · mixed: face-to-face interviews at respondents' homes (50%) and web survey (50%; quota sample). Base: Projection among decided voters: chart 'IESPĒJAMAIS SAEIMAS VĒLĒŠANU IZNĀKUMS, JA BALSSTIESĪGIE BALSO KĀ APTAUJĀ' (text: "Skatot to aptaujāto atbildes, kuri jau ir izlēmuši, par ko balsot"). This is the base comparable to a certified result.. Source: web.archive.org/web/20261013064747/https://www.lsm.lv/raksts/zinas/latvija/25.09.2026-partiju-reitingi-septembri-saruk-atbalsts-progresivajiem-un-suverenajai-varaiapvienibai-jaunlatviesi-aug-zzs-popularitate-precizets.a664770/ (read 2026-10-25)

Mean error 1.9 points · margin error 13.1 points towards LATVIJA PIRMAJĀ VIETĀ · leader in final poll: same as result

Contestant	Poll %	Result %	Error (pts)
AS	22.7	35.8	−13.1
SV/J	14.1	11.9	+2.2
LPV	13.3	13.3	±0.0
P	10.2	8.0	+2.2
NA	8.7	9.0	−0.3
JV	6.8	6.4	+0.4
ZZS	6.5	4.5	+2.0
LA	3.7	2.2	+1.5
MMN	3.7	3.5	+0.2
St!	3.1	2.0	+1.1
SC	2.4	0.8	+1.6
ASL	2.0	1.3	+0.7
GS	1.8	1.0	+0.8
JKP	0.7	0.3	+0.4

Names are the abbreviations printed in the charts; full names in the article: AS = 'Apvienotais saraksts', SV/J = 'Suverēnā vara/Apvienība Jaunlatvieši', LPV = 'Latvija pirmajā vietā', P = 'Progresīvie', NA = Nacionālā apvienība, ZZS = Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība, JV = 'Jaunā Vienotība', St! = 'Stabilitātei!', MMN = 'Mēs mainām noteikumus', LA = 'Latvijas attīstībai', SC = 'Saskaņas centrs', ASL = 'Austošā saule Latvijai', GS = 'Gobzema saraksts', JKP = Jaunā konservatīvā partija. Article is marked '(precizēts)': GS corrected from 1,7 % to 1,2 %. The ZZS figure (4.8) appears only in the chart. Compared on the decided-voter base the release also publishes; its headline figures include the undecided.

Method

Each figure is the pollster’s final published poll before the vote, read from its own release, the commissioning outlet’s report, or an official registry; never from Wikipedia or an aggregator. It is set against the certified count as a share of valid votes. Error is poll minus result, in percentage points; the mean is over the contestants the poll and the count both name. Margin error is the certified winner’s lead over the certified runner-up as the poll had it, minus as it was, and names the one the poll leaned towards. Where the poll’s base differs (for example, all respondents including undecided), the comparison says so. These are measured facts, not grades: we rank no pollster.

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