PoderData: final polls against certified results
2 elections measured against the certified count.
- Based in
- Brazil
- Countries polled
- Brazil
- Final polls held
- 2 (2 set against a certified count)
- Modes
- telephone IVR (URA), mobile and landline; telephone IVR/URA (mobile and landline), 786 municipalities in 27 UFs
- Polls registered with
- TSE PesqEle
- Website
- poder360.com.br/poderdata/
Brazil runoff 2026
Mean error 2.8 points · margin error 5.6 points towards Flávio Bolsonaro · leader in final poll: different
| Contestant | Poll % | Result % | Error (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) | 51.0 | 48.2 | +2.8 |
| Lula (PT) | 49.0 | 51.8 | −2.8 |
Brazil general election 2026
Mean error 0.8 points · margin error 3.9 points towards Lula · leader in final poll: different
| Contestant | Poll % | Result % | Error (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lula (PT) | 45.0 | 45.2 | −0.2 |
| Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) | 43.0 | 47.0 | −4.0 |
| Augusto Cury (Avante) | 4.0 | 2.9 | +1.1 |
| Renan Santos (Missão) | 3.0 | 2.2 | +0.8 |
| Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) | 3.0 | 2.2 | +0.8 |
| Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO) | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| Romeu Zema (Novo) | 1.0 | 0.3 | +0.7 |
| Samara Martins (UP) | 1.0 | 0.1 | +0.9 |
| Hertz Dias (PSTU) | 0.0 | 0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Clariana Barão (DC) | 0.0 | 0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Wilson Grassi (Democrata) | 0.0 | 0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Edmilson Costa (PCB) | 0.0 | 0.0 | ±0.0 |
Method
Each figure is the pollster’s final published poll before the vote, read from its own release, the commissioning outlet’s report, or an official registry; never from Wikipedia or an aggregator. It is set against the certified count as a share of valid votes. Error is poll minus result, in percentage points; the mean is over the contestants the poll and the count both name. Margin error is the certified winner’s lead over the certified runner-up as the poll had it, minus as it was, and names the one the poll leaned towards. Where the poll’s base differs (for example, all respondents including undecided), the comparison says so. These are measured facts, not grades: we rank no pollster.