Novus: final polls against certified results

1 election measured against the certified count.

Based in: Sweden
Countries polled: Sweden
Final polls held: 1 (1 set against a certified count)
Modes: mixed: primarily via Kivra (digital mailbox) and SMS, telephone for the oldest age group; random individual sample
Website: novus.se

Sweden general election 2026

for Novus (own väljarbarometer; no media client named) · fieldwork 2026-09-07 – 2026-09-10 · published 2026-09-11 · n = 5,928 · mixed: primarily via Kivra (digital mailbox) and SMS, telephone for the oldest age group; random individual sample. Base: Not stated in words. Party shares incl. 'Annat' sum to 100.0; uncertain voters are reported separately ("andelen osäkra väljare ... är 0,8 procent"), i.e. excluded from the base.. Source: novus.se/valjarbarometer-arkiv/11-september-2026/ (read 2026-10-25)

Mean error 1.3 points · margin error 2.3 points towards Arbetarepartiet-Socialdemokraterna · leader in final poll: same as result

Contestant	Poll %	Result %	Error (pts)
M	18.1	19.9	−1.8
L	4.7	5.3	−0.6
C	9.2	7.0	+2.2
KD	5.5	6.2	−0.7
S	28.6	28.0	+0.6
V	6.6	8.4	−1.8
MP	6.4	6.1	+0.3
SD	19.5	17.5	+2.0

Party figures are in Novus's own Infogram table embedded in the page (https://e.infogram.com/vb-tabell-11-september-2026-1hnp27ej93m8y4g, column '11 sep 26'); page text confirms C 9,2, MP 6,4, L 4,7. Novus also asked whether respondents had already voted early and on which party. Novus ran a separate TV4-commissioned poll published 9 Sep (column '9 sep 26'); the 11 Sep own release is later, so it is the final. The release does not state its base; its party shares add up to about 100, so they are read as shares of those naming a party.

Method

Each figure is the pollster’s final published poll before the vote, read from its own release, the commissioning outlet’s report, or an official registry; never from Wikipedia or an aggregator. It is set against the certified count as a share of valid votes. Error is poll minus result, in percentage points; the mean is over the contestants the poll and the count both name. Margin error is the certified winner’s lead over the certified runner-up as the poll had it, minus as it was, and names the one the poll leaned towards. Where the poll’s base differs (for example, all respondents including undecided), the comparison says so. These are measured facts, not grades: we rank no pollster.

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