Norstat: final polls against certified results

1 election measured against the certified count.

Based in: Norway
Countries polled: Norway
Final polls held: 1 (1 set against a certified count)
Modes: not stated in the article
Website: norstat.no

Norway legislative election 2025

for NRK, Vårt Land and Dagbladet · fieldwork 2025-09-01 – 2025-09-04 · published 2025-09-05 · n = 2,000 · not stated in the article. Base: Not stated. Shares sum to ~100 across parties incl. minor parties; no undecided category shown.. Source: nrk.no/norge/beste-nrk-maling-for-mdg-noensinne_-sorger-for-rodgront-flertall-1.17555797 (read 2026-10-25)

Mean error 1.2 points · margin error 1.8 points towards Arbeiderpartiet · leader in final poll: same as result

Contestant	Poll %	Result %	Error (pts)
A	26.4	28.0	−1.6
FRP	20.4	23.8	−3.4
H	14.3	14.6	−0.3
MDG	7.2	4.7	+2.5
RØDT	6.9	5.3	+1.6
SP	6.2	5.6	+0.6
SV	6.0	5.6	+0.4
V	4.3	3.7	+0.6
KRF	4.2	4.2	±0.0

Figures from the article's own 'Partimåling fra Norstat for september 2025 med 2 000 spurte' widget: names are NRK's party IDs in that widget (A = Arbeiderpartiet etc.), values are the widget's raw shares rounded to 1 dp (e.g. A 0.26423407); the article text confirms Ap 26,4, H 14,3, MDG 7,2. Fieldwork start inferred from 'denne veka' (week of Mon 1 Sep); end = Thursday 4 Sep. The release does not state its base; its party shares add up to about 100, so they are read as shares of those naming a party.

Method

Each figure is the pollster’s final published poll before the vote, read from its own release, the commissioning outlet’s report, or an official registry; never from Wikipedia or an aggregator. It is set against the certified count as a share of valid votes. Error is poll minus result, in percentage points; the mean is over the contestants the poll and the count both name. Margin error is the certified winner’s lead over the certified runner-up as the poll had it, minus as it was, and names the one the poll leaned towards. Where the poll’s base differs (for example, all respondents including undecided), the comparison says so. These are measured facts, not grades: we rank no pollster.

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