Criteria: final polls against certified results

0 elections measured against the certified count.

Based in: Chile
Countries polled: Chile
Final polls held: 1 (0 set against a certified count)
Modes: online panel (self-administered, certified closed panel; non-probability, quota-stratified, weighted by zone, sex, age and NSE)
Website: criteria.cl

Chile general election 2025

for Criteria (own 'Agenda Criteria') · fieldwork 2025-10-27 – 2025-10-29 · published 2025-10-30 · n = 1,200 · online panel (self-administered, certified closed panel; non-probability, quota-stratified, weighted by zone, sex, age and NSE). Base: All respondents, closed list ("Si la elección presidencial fuese este domingo, ¿por cuál de las siguientes candidaturas votarías? (PREGUNTA CERRADA)"); includes 'Nulo o blanco' 6%.. Source: criteria.cl/site/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Agenda_Criteria_30_Octubre_2025.pdf (read 2026-10-25)

Not set against the result. Its shares are of all respondents, with 6% null or blank in the base; the release gives no decided-voter version, and rescaling it would be our figure, not the pollster’s.

Contestant	Poll %
Jeannette Jara	27.0
José Antonio Kast	23.0
Johannes Kaiser	15.0
Evelyn Matthei	14.0
Franco Parisi	9.0
Harold Mayne-Nicholls	3.0
Marco Enríquez-Ominami	2.0
Eduardo Artés	1.0
Nulo o blanco	6.0

Special pre-veda edition dated 30 Oct (summary: 'Jeannette Jara se mantiene en el primer lugar con 27% (-1) ... Un 6% (-1) no manifiesta preferencia'). The PDF was uploaded to criteria.cl on 2025-11-17 (after the election); the original publication date is the document's own date, 30 Oct. A news lead (Ex-Ante) dates the release 31 Oct.

Method

Each figure is the pollster’s final published poll before the vote, read from its own release, the commissioning outlet’s report, or an official registry; never from Wikipedia or an aggregator. It is set against the certified count as a share of valid votes. Error is poll minus result, in percentage points; the mean is over the contestants the poll and the count both name. Margin error is the certified winner’s lead over the certified runner-up as the poll had it, minus as it was, and names the one the poll leaned towards. Where the poll’s base differs (for example, all respondents including undecided), the comparison says so. These are measured facts, not grades: we rank no pollster.

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