Centro de Estudios Públicos (CEP): final polls against certified results

0 elections measured against the certified count.

Based in: Chile
Countries polled: Chile
Final polls held: 1 (0 set against a certified count)
Modes: face-to-face (probability household sample, 100 comunas; response rate 64.2%)
Website: cepchile.cl

Chile general election 2025

for CEP (own Estudio Nacional de Opinión Pública, Encuesta CEP N°95) · fieldwork 2025-09-22 – 2025-10-17 · published 2025-10-27 · n = 1,217 · face-to-face (probability household sample, 100 comunas; response rate 64.2%). Base: Total sample ("(Total muestra)"); simulated secret-ballot question ('deposítelo en la urna'), incl. Nulo + Blanco 12 and No vota 9 (rounded figures sum to 101).. Source: static.cepchile.cl/uploads/cepchile/2025/10/27-154418_uip4_ppt95_conferencia_OP_con-anexo_VF.pdf (read 2026-10-25)

Not set against the result. Its shares are of the whole sample, with 12% null or blank and 9% not voting in the base; the release gives no decided-voter version, and rescaling it would be our figure, not the pollster’s.

Contestant	Poll %
Jeannette Jara	25.0
José Antonio Kast	23.0
Evelyn Matthei	12.0
Franco Parisi	9.0
Johannes Kaiser	6.0
Harold Mayne-Nicholls	2.0
Marco Enríquez-Ominami	2.0
Eduardo Artés	1.0
Nulo + Blanco	12.0
No vota	9.0

Figures read from slide 47 (rendered chart). Very long field period ending a month before the election; not comparable in timing to the weekly trackers. published_at from the PDF's upload date on CEP's site (27 Oct 2025).

Method

Each figure is the pollster’s final published poll before the vote, read from its own release, the commissioning outlet’s report, or an official registry; never from Wikipedia or an aggregator. It is set against the certified count as a share of valid votes. Error is poll minus result, in percentage points; the mean is over the contestants the poll and the count both name. Margin error is the certified winner’s lead over the certified runner-up as the poll had it, minus as it was, and names the one the poll leaned towards. Where the poll’s base differs (for example, all respondents including undecided), the comparison says so. These are measured facts, not grades: we rank no pollster.

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