Cadem: final polls against certified results

1 election measured against the certified count.

Based in: Chile
Countries polled: Chile
Final polls held: 1 (1 set against a certified count)
Modes: phone (CATI to prepaid and postpaid mobiles)
Website: cadem.cl

Chile general election 2025

for Cadem (own weekly Plaza Pública survey) · fieldwork 2025-10-22 – 2025-10-24 · published 2025-10-26 · n = 1,225 · phone (CATI to prepaid and postpaid mobiles). Base: 'Escenario primera vuelta. Base 100' — "Casos: Entre quienes declaran una preferencia" (24 octubre column). Source: web.archive.org/web/20251027091704/https://cadem.cl/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Track-PP-615-Octubre-S4-VF.pdf (read 2026-10-25)

Mean error 2.4 points · margin error 5.1 points towards Jeannette Jara · leader in final poll: same as result

Contestant	Poll %	Result %	Error (pts)
Jeannette Jara	30.0	26.8	+3.2
José Antonio Kast	22.0	23.9	−1.9
Johannes Kaiser	15.0	13.9	+1.1
Evelyn Matthei	14.0	12.5	+1.5
Franco Parisi	12.0	19.7	−7.7
Harold Mayne Nicholls	5.0	1.3	+3.7
Eduardo Artés	1.0	0.7	+0.3
Marco Enríquez Ominami	1.0	1.2	−0.2

Cadem has removed 2025 Track-PP PDFs from cadem.cl (404 now); opened Cadem's own PDF via its Wayback capture of 27 Oct 2025. published_at is not printed in the PDF: the capture is dated 2025-10-27 and Cadem releases Plaza Pública on Sundays (26 Oct); treat the day as approximate. The next edition, N°616 (fieldwork 29-30 Oct), contains no electoral questions (veda), so N°615 is Cadem's last published vote-intention poll before the ban. Compared on the decided-voter base the release also publishes; its headline figures include the undecided.

Method

Each figure is the pollster’s final published poll before the vote, read from its own release, the commissioning outlet’s report, or an official registry; never from Wikipedia or an aggregator. It is set against the certified count as a share of valid votes. Error is poll minus result, in percentage points; the mean is over the contestants the poll and the count both name. Margin error is the certified winner’s lead over the certified runner-up as the poll had it, minus as it was, and names the one the poll leaned towards. Where the poll’s base differs (for example, all respondents including undecided), the comparison says so. These are measured facts, not grades: we rank no pollster.

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