Black & White: final polls against certified results
1 election measured against the certified count.
- Based in
- Chile
- Countries polled
- Chile
- Final polls held
- 1 (1 set against a certified count)
- Modes
- online panel (Black&White panel, random sampling within panel, weighted to 2024 census)
Chile general election 2025
Mean error 4.7 points · margin error 4.1 points towards Jeannette Jara · leader in final poll: same as result
| Contestant | Poll % | Result % | Error (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jeannette Jara | 30.0 | 26.8 | +3.2 |
| José Antonio Kast | 23.0 | 23.9 | −0.9 |
| Johannes Kaiser | 20.0 | 13.9 | +6.1 |
| Evelyn Matthei | 17.0 | 12.5 | +4.5 |
| Franco Parisi | 7.0 | 19.7 | −12.7 |
| Harold Mayne-Nicholls | 2.0 | 1.3 | +0.7 |
Method
Each figure is the pollster’s final published poll before the vote, read from its own release, the commissioning outlet’s report, or an official registry; never from Wikipedia or an aggregator. It is set against the certified count as a share of valid votes. Error is poll minus result, in percentage points; the mean is over the contestants the poll and the count both name. Margin error is the certified winner’s lead over the certified runner-up as the poll had it, minus as it was, and names the one the poll leaned towards. Where the poll’s base differs (for example, all respondents including undecided), the comparison says so. These are measured facts, not grades: we rank no pollster.