{ "data": [ { "id": "atlasintel", "name": "AtlasIntel", "country": "BR", "country_name": "Brazil", "countries_polled": [ "BR" ], "modes": [ "online: Random Digital Recruitment (Atlas RDR)", "online: Atlas Random Digital Recruitment (RDR)" ], "aliases": [], "website": "https://atlasintel.org", "wikidata": null, "registries": [], "note": null, "url": "https://electionindex.org/pollster/atlasintel", "final_polls": [ { "id": "atlasintel/brazil-general-2026-r2", "pollster": "atlasintel", "pollster_name": "AtlasIntel", "election": "brazil-general-2026-r2", "race": "president", "commissioned_by": "Bloomberg", "fieldwork": { "start": "2026-10-18", "end": "2026-10-23" }, "published_at": "2026-10-24", "sample_size": 4990, "mode": "online: Random Digital Recruitment (Atlas RDR)", "population": null, "base": "votos válidos (excluem brancos, nulos e indecisos)", "results": [ { "name": "Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)", "pct": 50.8, "match": "FLAVIO NANTES BOLSONARO" }, { "name": "Lula (PT)", "pct": 49.2, "match": "LUIZ INÁCIO LULA DA SILVA" } ], "undecided_pct": null, "registry": { "name": "TSE PesqEle", "ref": "BR-06380/2026" }, "source": "https://www.bloomberglinea.com.br/brasil/flavio-bolsonaro-tem-508-dos-votos-validos-contra-492-de-lula-aponta-atlasintel/", "read_on": "2026-10-25", "licence_layer": "facts-only", "against_result": { "rows": [ { "name": "Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)", "match": "FLAVIO NANTES BOLSONARO", "poll": 50.8, "result": 48.2, "error": 2.6 }, { "name": "Lula (PT)", "match": "LUIZ INÁCIO LULA DA SILVA", "poll": 49.2, "result": 51.8, "error": -2.6 } ], "mean_abs_error": 2.6, "margin_error": -5.2, "margin_towards": "FLAVIO NANTES BOLSONARO", "margin_towards_label": "Flávio Bolsonaro", "leader_same_as_result": false }, "not_comparable": null, "note": "Read in Bloomberg Línea, the Latin American partner of the commissioning outlet, Bloomberg." }, { "id": "atlasintel/brazil-general-2026", "pollster": "atlasintel", "pollster_name": "AtlasIntel", "election": "brazil-general-2026", "race": "president", "commissioned_by": "Bloomberg", "fieldwork": { "start": "2026-09-27", "end": "2026-10-02" }, "published_at": "2026-10-03", "sample_size": 4945, "mode": "online: Atlas Random Digital Recruitment (RDR)", "population": null, "base": "votos válidos (excluem brancos, nulos e indecisos)", "results": [ { "name": "Lula (PT)", "pct": 47, "match": "LUIZ INÁCIO LULA DA SILVA" }, { "name": "Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)", "pct": 44.1, "match": "FLAVIO NANTES BOLSONARO" }, { "name": "Renan Santos (Missão)", "pct": 4.6, "match": "RENAN ANTONIO FERREIRA DOS SANTOS" }, { "name": "Augusto Cury (Avante)", "pct": 2.1, "match": "AUGUSTO JORGE CURY" }, { "name": "Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)", "pct": 1.4, "match": "RONALDO RAMOS CAIADO" }, { "name": "Outros", "pct": 0.9, "match": null } ], "undecided_pct": 0.3, "registry": { "name": "TSE PesqEle", "ref": "BR-00999/2026" }, "source": "https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/pesquisa_atlas_bloomberg__nacional_261003_1_2c124be0d65430b5.pdf", "read_on": "2026-10-25", "licence_layer": "facts-only", "against_result": { "rows": [ { "name": "Lula (PT)", "match": "LUIZ INÁCIO LULA DA SILVA", "poll": 47, "result": 45.2, "error": 1.8 }, { "name": "Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)", "match": "FLAVIO NANTES BOLSONARO", "poll": 44.1, "result": 47, "error": -2.9 }, { "name": "Renan Santos (Missão)", "match": "RENAN ANTONIO FERREIRA DOS SANTOS", "poll": 4.6, "result": 2.2, "error": 2.4 }, { "name": "Augusto Cury (Avante)", "match": "AUGUSTO JORGE CURY", "poll": 2.1, "result": 2.9, "error": -0.8 }, { "name": "Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)", "match": "RONALDO RAMOS CAIADO", "poll": 1.4, "result": 2.2, "error": -0.8 } ], "mean_abs_error": 1.7, "margin_error": -4.8, "margin_towards": "LUIZ INÁCIO LULA DA SILVA", "margin_towards_label": "Lula", "leader_same_as_result": false }, "not_comparable": null, "note": null } ] }, { "id": "datafolha", "name": "Datafolha", "country": "BR", "country_name": "Brazil", "countries_polled": [ "BR" ], "modes": [], "aliases": [], "website": "https://datafolha.folha.uol.com.br", "wikidata": null, "registries": [], "note": null, "url": "https://electionindex.org/pollster/datafolha", "final_polls": [ { "id": "datafolha/brazil-general-2026-r2", "pollster": "datafolha", "pollster_name": "Datafolha", "election": "brazil-general-2026-r2", "race": "president", "commissioned_by": "TV Globo / Folha de S.Paulo", "fieldwork": { "start": "2026-10-23", "end": "2026-10-24" }, "published_at": "2026-10-24", "sample_size": 4050, "mode": null, "population": null, "base": "votos válidos (excluem brancos, nulos e indecisos)", "results": [ { "name": "Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)", "pct": 51, "match": "FLAVIO NANTES BOLSONARO" }, { "name": "Lula (PT)", "pct": 49, "match": "LUIZ INÁCIO LULA DA SILVA" } ], "undecided_pct": null, "registry": { "name": "TSE PesqEle", "ref": "BR-09540/2026" }, "source": "https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/10/datafolha-flavio-bolsonaro-tem-51-dos-votos-validos-e-lula-49-em-empate-tecnico.shtml", "read_on": "2026-10-25", "licence_layer": "facts-only", "against_result": { "rows": [ { "name": "Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)", "match": "FLAVIO NANTES BOLSONARO", "poll": 51, "result": 48.2, "error": 2.8 }, { "name": "Lula (PT)", "match": "LUIZ INÁCIO LULA DA SILVA", "poll": 49, "result": 51.8, "error": -2.8 } ], "mean_abs_error": 2.8, "margin_error": -5.6, "margin_towards": "FLAVIO NANTES BOLSONARO", "margin_towards_label": "Flávio Bolsonaro", "leader_same_as_result": false }, "not_comparable": null, "note": null }, { "id": "datafolha/brazil-general-2026", "pollster": "datafolha", "pollster_name": "Datafolha", "election": "brazil-general-2026", "race": "president", "commissioned_by": "TV Globo / Folha de S.Paulo", "fieldwork": { "start": "2026-10-03", "end": "2026-10-03" }, "published_at": "2026-10-03", "sample_size": 4006, "mode": null, "population": null, "base": "votos válidos (excluem brancos, nulos e indecisos)", "results": [ { "name": "Lula (PT)", "pct": 45, "match": "LUIZ INÁCIO LULA DA SILVA" }, { "name": "Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)", "pct": 42, "match": "FLAVIO NANTES BOLSONARO" }, { "name": "Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)", "pct": 4, "match": "RONALDO RAMOS CAIADO" }, { "name": "Renan Santos (Missão)", "pct": 3, "match": "RENAN ANTONIO FERREIRA DOS SANTOS" }, { "name": "Augusto Cury (Avante)", "pct": 3, "match": "AUGUSTO JORGE CURY" }, { "name": "Romeu Zema (Novo)", "pct": 1, "match": "ROMEU ZEMA NETO" }, { "name": "Samara Martins (UP)", "pct": 0, "match": "SAMARA MARTINS DA SILVA FEITOSA" }, { "name": "Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)", "pct": 0, "match": "RUI COSTA PIMENTA" }, { "name": "Edmilson Costa (PCB)", "pct": 0, "match": "EDMILSON SILVA COSTA" }, { "name": "Wilson Grassi (Democrata)", "pct": 0, "match": "WILSON GRASSI JUNIOR" }, { "name": "Clariana Barão (DC)", "pct": 0, "match": "CLARIANA ZACARKIM BARAO" }, { "name": "Hertz Dias (PSTU)", "pct": 0, "match": "HERTZ DA CONCEICAO DIAS" } ], "undecided_pct": 3, "registry": { "name": "TSE PesqEle", "ref": "BR-01708/2026" }, "source": "https://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2026/pesquisa-eleitoral/noticia/2026/10/03/datafolha-presidente-3-outubro.ghtml", "read_on": "2026-10-25", "licence_layer": "facts-only", "against_result": { "rows": [ { "name": "Lula (PT)", "match": "LUIZ INÁCIO LULA DA SILVA", "poll": 45, "result": 45.2, "error": -0.2 }, { "name": "Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)", "match": "FLAVIO NANTES BOLSONARO", "poll": 42, "result": 47, "error": -5 }, { "name": "Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)", "match": "RONALDO RAMOS CAIADO", "poll": 4, "result": 2.2, "error": 1.8 }, { "name": "Renan Santos (Missão)", "match": "RENAN ANTONIO FERREIRA DOS SANTOS", "poll": 3, "result": 2.2, "error": 0.8 }, { "name": "Augusto Cury (Avante)", "match": "AUGUSTO JORGE CURY", "poll": 3, "result": 2.9, "error": 0.1 }, { "name": "Romeu Zema (Novo)", "match": "ROMEU ZEMA NETO", "poll": 1, "result": 0.3, "error": 0.7 }, { "name": "Samara Martins (UP)", "match": "SAMARA MARTINS DA SILVA FEITOSA", "poll": 0, "result": 0.1, "error": -0.1 }, { "name": "Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)", "match": "RUI COSTA PIMENTA", "poll": 0, "result": 0, "error": 0 }, { "name": "Edmilson Costa (PCB)", "match": "EDMILSON SILVA COSTA", "poll": 0, "result": 0, "error": 0 }, { "name": "Wilson Grassi (Democrata)", "match": "WILSON GRASSI JUNIOR", "poll": 0, "result": 0, "error": 0 }, { "name": "Clariana Barão (DC)", "match": "CLARIANA ZACARKIM BARAO", "poll": 0, "result": 0, "error": 0 }, { "name": "Hertz Dias (PSTU)", "match": "HERTZ DA CONCEICAO DIAS", "poll": 0, "result": 0, "error": 0 } ], "mean_abs_error": 0.7, "margin_error": -4.9, "margin_towards": "LUIZ INÁCIO LULA DA SILVA", "margin_towards_label": "Lula", "leader_same_as_result": false }, "not_comparable": null, "note": "Same text also in a PDF capture hosted by Poder360: https://static.poder360.com.br/uploads/2026/10/datafolha-presidente-outubro-2.pdf" } ] }, { "id": "poderdata", "name": "PoderData", "country": "BR", "country_name": "Brazil", "countries_polled": [ "BR" ], "modes": [ "telephone IVR (URA), mobile and landline", "telephone IVR/URA (mobile and landline), 786 municipalities in 27 UFs" ], "aliases": [], "website": "https://www.poder360.com.br/poderdata/", "wikidata": null, "registries": [], "note": null, "url": "https://electionindex.org/pollster/poderdata", "final_polls": [ { "id": "poderdata/brazil-general-2026-r2", "pollster": "poderdata", "pollster_name": "PoderData", "election": "brazil-general-2026-r2", "race": "president", "commissioned_by": null, "fieldwork": { "start": "2026-10-19", "end": "2026-10-21" }, "published_at": "2026-10-22", "sample_size": 4000, "mode": "telephone IVR (URA), mobile and landline", "population": null, "base": "votos válidos (excluem brancos, nulos e indecisos)", "results": [ { "name": "Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)", "pct": 51, "match": "FLAVIO NANTES BOLSONARO" }, { "name": "Lula (PT)", "pct": 49, "match": "LUIZ INÁCIO LULA DA SILVA" } ], "undecided_pct": null, "registry": { "name": "TSE PesqEle", "ref": "BR-07926/2026" }, "source": "https://www.poder360.com.br/poderdata/pesquisa-poderdata-aya-leia-os-resultados-de-lula-e-flavio-na-reta-final-do-2o-turno-3/", "read_on": "2026-10-25", "licence_layer": "facts-only", "against_result": { "rows": [ { "name": "Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)", "match": "FLAVIO NANTES BOLSONARO", "poll": 51, "result": 48.2, "error": 2.8 }, { "name": "Lula (PT)", "match": "LUIZ INÁCIO LULA DA SILVA", "poll": 49, "result": 51.8, "error": -2.8 } ], "mean_abs_error": 2.8, "margin_error": -5.6, "margin_towards": "FLAVIO NANTES BOLSONARO", "margin_towards_label": "Flávio Bolsonaro", "leader_same_as_result": false }, "not_comparable": null, "note": "A later PoderData round (fieldwork 23–24 Oct) came out at 00:01 on polling day, so this is the last one published before it." }, { "id": "poderdata/brazil-general-2026", "pollster": "poderdata", "pollster_name": "PoderData", "election": "brazil-general-2026", "race": "president", "commissioned_by": null, "fieldwork": { "start": "2026-09-30", "end": "2026-10-02" }, "published_at": "2026-10-03", "sample_size": 4000, "mode": "telephone IVR/URA (mobile and landline), 786 municipalities in 27 UFs", "population": null, "base": "votos válidos (excluem brancos, nulos e indecisos)", "results": [ { "name": "Lula (PT)", "pct": 45, "match": "LUIZ INÁCIO LULA DA SILVA" }, { "name": "Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)", "pct": 43, "match": "FLAVIO NANTES BOLSONARO" }, { "name": "Augusto Cury (Avante)", "pct": 4, "match": "AUGUSTO JORGE CURY" }, { "name": "Renan Santos (Missão)", "pct": 3, "match": "RENAN ANTONIO FERREIRA DOS SANTOS" }, { "name": "Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)", "pct": 3, "match": "RONALDO RAMOS CAIADO" }, { "name": "Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)", "pct": 1, "match": "RUI COSTA PIMENTA" }, { "name": "Romeu Zema (Novo)", "pct": 1, "match": "ROMEU ZEMA NETO" }, { "name": "Samara Martins (UP)", "pct": 1, "match": "SAMARA MARTINS DA SILVA FEITOSA" }, { "name": "Hertz Dias (PSTU)", "pct": 0, "match": "HERTZ DA CONCEICAO DIAS" }, { "name": "Clariana Barão (DC)", "pct": 0, "match": "CLARIANA ZACARKIM BARAO" }, { "name": "Leonardo Avalanche (PRTB)", "pct": 0, "match": null }, { "name": "Wilson Grassi (Democrata)", "pct": 0, "match": "WILSON GRASSI JUNIOR" }, { "name": "Edmilson Costa (PCB)", "pct": 0, "match": "EDMILSON SILVA COSTA" } ], "undecided_pct": 2, "registry": { "name": "TSE PesqEle", "ref": "BR-03519/2026" }, "source": "https://www.poder360.com.br/poderdata/na-vespera-do-1o-turno-lula-tem-45-e-flavio-43-dos-votos-validos/", "read_on": "2026-10-25", "licence_layer": "facts-only", "against_result": { "rows": [ { "name": "Lula (PT)", "match": "LUIZ INÁCIO LULA DA SILVA", "poll": 45, "result": 45.2, "error": -0.2 }, { "name": "Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)", "match": "FLAVIO NANTES BOLSONARO", "poll": 43, "result": 47, "error": -4 }, { "name": "Augusto Cury (Avante)", "match": "AUGUSTO JORGE CURY", "poll": 4, "result": 2.9, "error": 1.1 }, { "name": "Renan Santos (Missão)", "match": "RENAN ANTONIO FERREIRA DOS SANTOS", "poll": 3, "result": 2.2, "error": 0.8 }, { "name": "Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)", "match": "RONALDO RAMOS CAIADO", "poll": 3, "result": 2.2, "error": 0.8 }, { "name": "Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)", "match": "RUI COSTA PIMENTA", "poll": 1, "result": 0, "error": 1 }, { "name": "Romeu Zema (Novo)", "match": "ROMEU ZEMA NETO", "poll": 1, "result": 0.3, "error": 0.7 }, { "name": "Samara Martins (UP)", "match": "SAMARA MARTINS DA SILVA FEITOSA", "poll": 1, "result": 0.1, "error": 0.9 }, { "name": "Hertz Dias (PSTU)", "match": "HERTZ DA CONCEICAO DIAS", "poll": 0, "result": 0, "error": 0 }, { "name": "Clariana Barão (DC)", "match": "CLARIANA ZACARKIM BARAO", "poll": 0, "result": 0, "error": 0 }, { "name": "Wilson Grassi (Democrata)", "match": "WILSON GRASSI JUNIOR", "poll": 0, "result": 0, "error": 0 }, { "name": "Edmilson Costa (PCB)", "match": "EDMILSON SILVA COSTA", "poll": 0, "result": 0, "error": 0 } ], "mean_abs_error": 0.8, "margin_error": -3.9, "margin_towards": "LUIZ INÁCIO LULA DA SILVA", "margin_towards_label": "Lula", "leader_same_as_result": false }, "not_comparable": null, "note": "Leonardo Avalanche (PRTB), listed by the poll, is not among the candidates in the TSE count." } ] }, { "id": "quaest", "name": "Quaest", "country": "BR", "country_name": "Brazil", "countries_polled": [ "BR" ], "modes": [], "aliases": [], "website": "https://www.quaest.com.br", "wikidata": null, "registries": [], "note": null, "url": "https://electionindex.org/pollster/quaest", "final_polls": [ { "id": "quaest/brazil-general-2026-r2", "pollster": "quaest", "pollster_name": "Quaest", "election": "brazil-general-2026-r2", "race": "president", "commissioned_by": "TV Globo / O Globo", "fieldwork": { "start": "2026-10-23", "end": "2026-10-24" }, "published_at": "2026-10-24", "sample_size": 3702, "mode": null, "population": null, "base": "votos válidos (excluem brancos, nulos e indecisos)", "results": [ { "name": "Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)", "pct": 51, "match": "FLAVIO NANTES BOLSONARO" }, { "name": "Lula (PT)", "pct": 49, "match": "LUIZ INÁCIO LULA DA SILVA" } ], "undecided_pct": null, "registry": { "name": "TSE PesqEle", "ref": "BR-09158/2026" }, "source": "https://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2026/pesquisa-eleitoral/noticia/2026/10/24/quaest-2o-turno-votos-validos.ghtml", "read_on": "2026-10-25", "licence_layer": "facts-only", "against_result": { "rows": [ { "name": "Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)", "match": "FLAVIO NANTES BOLSONARO", "poll": 51, "result": 48.2, "error": 2.8 }, { "name": "Lula (PT)", "match": "LUIZ INÁCIO LULA DA SILVA", "poll": 49, "result": 51.8, "error": -2.8 } ], "mean_abs_error": 2.8, "margin_error": -5.6, "margin_towards": "FLAVIO NANTES BOLSONARO", "margin_towards_label": "Flávio Bolsonaro", "leader_same_as_result": false }, "not_comparable": null, "note": "Quaest's valid-vote figure comes from its likely-voter model, not a plain exclusion of blank, null and undecided." }, { "id": "quaest/brazil-general-2026", "pollster": "quaest", "pollster_name": "Quaest", "election": "brazil-general-2026", "race": "president", "commissioned_by": "TV Globo / O Globo", "fieldwork": { "start": "2026-10-02", "end": "2026-10-03" }, "published_at": "2026-10-03", "sample_size": 3702, "mode": null, "population": null, "base": "votos válidos (excluem brancos, nulos e indecisos)", "results": [ { "name": "Lula (PT)", "pct": 46, "match": "LUIZ INÁCIO LULA DA SILVA" }, { "name": "Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)", "pct": 45, "match": "FLAVIO NANTES BOLSONARO" }, { "name": "Augusto Cury (Avante)", "pct": 3, "match": "AUGUSTO JORGE CURY" }, { "name": "Renan Santos (Missão)", "pct": 3, "match": "RENAN ANTONIO FERREIRA DOS SANTOS" }, { "name": "Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)", "pct": 3, "match": "RONALDO RAMOS CAIADO" }, { "name": "Clariana Barão (DC)", "pct": 0, "match": "CLARIANA ZACARKIM BARAO" }, { "name": "Edmilson Costa (PCB)", "pct": 0, "match": "EDMILSON SILVA COSTA" }, { "name": "Hertz Dias (PSTU)", "pct": 0, "match": "HERTZ DA CONCEICAO DIAS" }, { "name": "Leonardo Avalanche (PRTB)", "pct": 0, "match": null }, { "name": "Romeu Zema (Novo)", "pct": 0, "match": "ROMEU ZEMA NETO" }, { "name": "Samara Martins (UP)", "pct": 0, "match": "SAMARA MARTINS DA SILVA FEITOSA" }, { "name": "Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)", "pct": 0, "match": "RUI COSTA PIMENTA" }, { "name": "Wilson Grassi (Democrata)", "pct": 0, "match": "WILSON GRASSI JUNIOR" } ], "undecided_pct": 3, "registry": { "name": "TSE PesqEle", "ref": "BR-02197/2026" }, "source": "https://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2026/pesquisa-eleitoral/noticia/2026/10/03/quaest-presidente-3-outubro.ghtml", "read_on": "2026-10-25", "licence_layer": "facts-only", "against_result": { "rows": [ { "name": "Lula (PT)", "match": "LUIZ INÁCIO LULA DA SILVA", "poll": 46, "result": 45.2, "error": 0.8 }, { "name": "Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)", "match": "FLAVIO NANTES BOLSONARO", "poll": 45, "result": 47, "error": -2 }, { "name": "Augusto Cury (Avante)", "match": "AUGUSTO JORGE CURY", "poll": 3, "result": 2.9, "error": 0.1 }, { "name": "Renan Santos (Missão)", "match": "RENAN ANTONIO FERREIRA DOS SANTOS", "poll": 3, "result": 2.2, "error": 0.8 }, { "name": "Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)", "match": "RONALDO RAMOS CAIADO", "poll": 3, "result": 2.2, "error": 0.8 }, { "name": "Clariana Barão (DC)", "match": "CLARIANA ZACARKIM BARAO", "poll": 0, "result": 0, "error": 0 }, { "name": "Edmilson Costa (PCB)", "match": "EDMILSON SILVA COSTA", "poll": 0, "result": 0, "error": 0 }, { "name": "Hertz Dias (PSTU)", "match": "HERTZ DA CONCEICAO DIAS", "poll": 0, "result": 0, "error": 0 }, { "name": "Romeu Zema (Novo)", "match": "ROMEU ZEMA NETO", "poll": 0, "result": 0.3, "error": -0.3 }, { "name": "Samara Martins (UP)", "match": "SAMARA MARTINS DA SILVA FEITOSA", "poll": 0, "result": 0.1, "error": -0.1 }, { "name": "Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO)", "match": "RUI COSTA PIMENTA", "poll": 0, "result": 0, "error": 0 }, { "name": "Wilson Grassi (Democrata)", "match": "WILSON GRASSI JUNIOR", "poll": 0, "result": 0, "error": 0 } ], "mean_abs_error": 0.4, "margin_error": -2.9, "margin_towards": "LUIZ INÁCIO LULA DA SILVA", "margin_towards_label": "Lula", "leader_same_as_result": false }, "not_comparable": null, "note": "Quaest's valid-vote figure comes from its likely-voter model, not a plain exclusion of blank, null and undecided. Leonardo Avalanche (PRTB), listed by the poll, is not among the candidates in the TSE count. PDF capture also at https://static.poder360.com.br/uploads/2026/10/Pesquisa-Quaest_-Lula-tem-46-e-Flavio-Bolsonaro-45-_-G1.pdf" } ] }, { "id": "black-and-white-cl", "name": "Black & White", "country": "CL", "country_name": "Chile", "countries_polled": [ "CL" ], "modes": [ "online panel (Black&White panel, random sampling within panel, weighted to 2024 census)" ], "aliases": [], "website": null, "wikidata": null, "registries": [], "note": null, "url": "https://electionindex.org/pollster/black-and-white-cl", "final_polls": [ { "id": "black-and-white-cl/chile-general-2025", "pollster": "black-and-white-cl", "pollster_name": "Black & White", "election": "chile-general-2025", "race": "president", "commissioned_by": "Black & White (own 'Estudio Presidenciales y Actualidad'; report released via El Dínamo)", "fieldwork": { "start": "2025-10-28", "end": "2025-10-29" }, "published_at": "2025-10-31", "sample_size": 1289, "mode": "online panel (Black&White panel, random sampling within panel, weighted to 2024 census)", "population": "Personas de 18 años o más residentes de todo el país", "base": "Excludes null/blank/unsure: \"el cálculo de los porcentajes por candidato se calculó sin considerar aquellas personas que marcaron nulo, blanco o no estoy seguro/a, que no supera el 3%.\"", "results": [ { "name": "Jeannette Jara", "pct": 30, "match": "Jeannette Jara Román" }, { "name": "José Antonio Kast", "pct": 23, "match": "José Antonio Kast Rist" }, { "name": "Johannes Kaiser", "pct": 20, "match": "Johannes Kaiser Barents-Von Hohenhagen" }, { "name": "Evelyn Matthei", "pct": 17, "match": "Evelyn Matthei Fornet" }, { "name": "Franco Parisi", "pct": 7, "match": "Franco Parisi Fernández" }, { "name": "Harold Mayne-Nicholls", "pct": 2, "match": "Harold Mayne-Nicholls Sécul" } ], "undecided_pct": null, "registry": null, "source": "https://media.eldinamo.cl/2025/10/Reporte-Presidenciales-y-Actualidad-30-octubre-PDF.pdf", "read_on": "2026-10-25", "licence_layer": "facts-only", "against_result": { "rows": [ { "name": "Jeannette Jara", "match": "Jeannette Jara Román", "poll": 30, "result": 26.8, "error": 3.2 }, { "name": "José Antonio Kast", "match": "José Antonio Kast Rist", "poll": 23, "result": 23.9, "error": -0.9 }, { "name": "Johannes Kaiser", "match": "Johannes Kaiser Barents-Von Hohenhagen", "poll": 20, "result": 13.9, "error": 6.1 }, { "name": "Evelyn Matthei", "match": "Evelyn Matthei Fornet", "poll": 17, "result": 12.5, "error": 4.5 }, { "name": "Franco Parisi", "match": "Franco Parisi Fernández", "poll": 7, "result": 19.7, "error": -12.7 }, { "name": "Harold Mayne-Nicholls", "match": "Harold Mayne-Nicholls Sécul", "poll": 2, "result": 1.3, "error": 0.7 } ], "mean_abs_error": 4.7, "margin_error": 4.1, "margin_towards": "Jeannette Jara Román", "margin_towards_label": "Jeannette Jara", "leader_same_as_result": true }, "not_comparable": null, "note": "Pollster's own report PDF, hosted by El Dínamo and linked from its article 'Última Black & White antes de la veda' (https://www.eldinamo.cl/politica/2025/10/31/ultima-black-white-antes-de-la-veda-kaiser-desplaza-a-matthei-y-se-acerca-a-kast-en-carrera-presidencial/, datePublished 2025-10-31). Chart is labelled '29 octubre 2025'. Values for Enríquez-Ominami and Artés could not be read (overlapping labels in the stacked chart); left null rather than inferred." } ] }, { "id": "cadem", "name": "Cadem", "country": "CL", "country_name": "Chile", "countries_polled": [ "CL" ], "modes": [ "phone (CATI to prepaid and postpaid mobiles)" ], "aliases": [], "website": "https://cadem.cl", "wikidata": null, "registries": [], "note": null, "url": "https://electionindex.org/pollster/cadem", "final_polls": [ { "id": "cadem/chile-general-2025", "pollster": "cadem", "pollster_name": "Cadem", "election": "chile-general-2025", "race": "president", "commissioned_by": "Cadem (own weekly Plaza Pública survey)", "fieldwork": { "start": "2025-10-22", "end": "2025-10-24" }, "published_at": "2025-10-26", "sample_size": 1225, "mode": "phone (CATI to prepaid and postpaid mobiles)", "population": "Hombres y mujeres de 18 años o más, habitantes en las 16 regiones del país", "base": "'Escenario primera vuelta. Base 100' — \"Casos: Entre quienes declaran una preferencia\" (24 octubre column)", "results": [ { "name": "Jeannette Jara", "pct": 30, "match": "Jeannette Jara Román" }, { "name": "José Antonio Kast", "pct": 22, "match": "José Antonio Kast Rist" }, { "name": "Johannes Kaiser", "pct": 15, "match": "Johannes Kaiser Barents-Von Hohenhagen" }, { "name": "Evelyn Matthei", "pct": 14, "match": "Evelyn Matthei Fornet" }, { "name": "Franco Parisi", "pct": 12, "match": "Franco Parisi Fernández" }, { "name": "Harold Mayne Nicholls", "pct": 5, "match": "Harold Mayne-Nicholls Sécul" }, { "name": "Eduardo Artés", "pct": 1, "match": "Eduardo Antonio Artés Brichetti" }, { "name": "Marco Enríquez Ominami", "pct": 1, "match": "Marco Antonio Enríquez-Ominami Gumucio" } ], "undecided_pct": 9, "registry": null, "source": "https://web.archive.org/web/20251027091704/https://cadem.cl/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Track-PP-615-Octubre-S4-VF.pdf", "read_on": "2026-10-25", "licence_layer": "facts-only", "against_result": { "rows": [ { "name": "Jeannette Jara", "match": "Jeannette Jara Román", "poll": 30, "result": 26.8, "error": 3.2 }, { "name": "José Antonio Kast", "match": "José Antonio Kast Rist", "poll": 22, "result": 23.9, "error": -1.9 }, { "name": "Johannes Kaiser", "match": "Johannes Kaiser Barents-Von Hohenhagen", "poll": 15, "result": 13.9, "error": 1.1 }, { "name": "Evelyn Matthei", "match": "Evelyn Matthei Fornet", "poll": 14, "result": 12.5, "error": 1.5 }, { "name": "Franco Parisi", "match": "Franco Parisi Fernández", "poll": 12, "result": 19.7, "error": -7.7 }, { "name": "Harold Mayne Nicholls", "match": "Harold Mayne-Nicholls Sécul", "poll": 5, "result": 1.3, "error": 3.7 }, { "name": "Eduardo Artés", "match": "Eduardo Antonio Artés Brichetti", "poll": 1, "result": 0.7, "error": 0.3 }, { "name": "Marco Enríquez Ominami", "match": "Marco Antonio Enríquez-Ominami Gumucio", "poll": 1, "result": 1.2, "error": -0.2 } ], "mean_abs_error": 2.4, "margin_error": 5.1, "margin_towards": "Jeannette Jara Román", "margin_towards_label": "Jeannette Jara", "leader_same_as_result": true }, "not_comparable": null, "note": "Cadem has removed 2025 Track-PP PDFs from cadem.cl (404 now); opened Cadem's own PDF via its Wayback capture of 27 Oct 2025. published_at is not printed in the PDF: the capture is dated 2025-10-27 and Cadem releases Plaza Pública on Sundays (26 Oct); treat the day as approximate. The next edition, N°616 (fieldwork 29-30 Oct), contains no electoral questions (veda), so N°615 is Cadem's last published vote-intention poll before the ban. Compared on the decided-voter base the release also publishes; its headline figures include the undecided." } ] }, { "id": "cep-chile", "name": "Centro de Estudios Públicos (CEP)", "country": "CL", "country_name": "Chile", "countries_polled": [ "CL" ], "modes": [ "face-to-face (probability household sample, 100 comunas; response rate 64.2%)" ], "aliases": [], "website": "https://www.cepchile.cl", "wikidata": null, "registries": [], "note": null, "url": "https://electionindex.org/pollster/cep-chile", "final_polls": [ { "id": "cep-chile/chile-general-2025", "pollster": "cep-chile", "pollster_name": "Centro de Estudios Públicos (CEP)", "election": "chile-general-2025", "race": "president", "commissioned_by": "CEP (own Estudio Nacional de Opinión Pública, Encuesta CEP N°95)", "fieldwork": { "start": "2025-09-22", "end": "2025-10-17" }, "published_at": "2025-10-27", "sample_size": 1217, "mode": "face-to-face (probability household sample, 100 comunas; response rate 64.2%)", "population": "Población de 18 años y más residente en todo el país (a excepción de las zonas de difícil acceso)", "base": "Total sample (\"(Total muestra)\"); simulated secret-ballot question ('deposítelo en la urna'), incl. Nulo + Blanco 12 and No vota 9 (rounded figures sum to 101).", "results": [ { "name": "Jeannette Jara", "pct": 25, "match": null }, { "name": "José Antonio Kast", "pct": 23, "match": null }, { "name": "Evelyn Matthei", "pct": 12, "match": null }, { "name": "Franco Parisi", "pct": 9, "match": null }, { "name": "Johannes Kaiser", "pct": 6, "match": null }, { "name": "Harold Mayne-Nicholls", "pct": 2, "match": null }, { "name": "Marco Enríquez-Ominami", "pct": 2, "match": null }, { "name": "Eduardo Artés", "pct": 1, "match": null }, { "name": "Nulo + Blanco", "pct": 12, "match": null }, { "name": "No vota", "pct": 9, "match": null } ], "undecided_pct": null, "registry": null, "source": "https://static.cepchile.cl/uploads/cepchile/2025/10/27-154418_uip4_ppt95_conferencia_OP_con-anexo_VF.pdf", "read_on": "2026-10-25", "licence_layer": "facts-only", "against_result": null, "not_comparable": "Its shares are of the whole sample, with 12% null or blank and 9% not voting in the base; the release gives no decided-voter version, and rescaling it would be our figure, not the pollster’s.", "note": "Figures read from slide 47 (rendered chart). Very long field period ending a month before the election; not comparable in timing to the weekly trackers. published_at from the PDF's upload date on CEP's site (27 Oct 2025)." } ] }, { "id": "criteria-cl", "name": "Criteria", "country": "CL", "country_name": "Chile", "countries_polled": [ "CL" ], "modes": [ "online panel (self-administered, certified closed panel; non-probability, quota-stratified, weighted by zone, sex, age and NSE)" ], "aliases": [], "website": "https://www.criteria.cl", "wikidata": null, "registries": [], "note": null, "url": "https://electionindex.org/pollster/criteria-cl", "final_polls": [ { "id": "criteria-cl/chile-general-2025", "pollster": "criteria-cl", "pollster_name": "Criteria", "election": "chile-general-2025", "race": "president", "commissioned_by": "Criteria (own 'Agenda Criteria')", "fieldwork": { "start": "2025-10-27", "end": "2025-10-29" }, "published_at": "2025-10-30", "sample_size": 1200, "mode": "online panel (self-administered, certified closed panel; non-probability, quota-stratified, weighted by zone, sex, age and NSE)", "population": "Mujeres y Hombres de 18 o más años. De los niveles socioeconómicos ABCD, residentes de todo el país.", "base": "All respondents, closed list (\"Si la elección presidencial fuese este domingo, ¿por cuál de las siguientes candidaturas votarías? (PREGUNTA CERRADA)\"); includes 'Nulo o blanco' 6%.", "results": [ { "name": "Jeannette Jara", "pct": 27, "match": null }, { "name": "José Antonio Kast", "pct": 23, "match": null }, { "name": "Johannes Kaiser", "pct": 15, "match": null }, { "name": "Evelyn Matthei", "pct": 14, "match": null }, { "name": "Franco Parisi", "pct": 9, "match": null }, { "name": "Harold Mayne-Nicholls", "pct": 3, "match": null }, { "name": "Marco Enríquez-Ominami", "pct": 2, "match": null }, { "name": "Eduardo Artés", "pct": 1, "match": null }, { "name": "Nulo o blanco", "pct": 6, "match": null } ], "undecided_pct": null, "registry": null, "source": "https://www.criteria.cl/site/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Agenda_Criteria_30_Octubre_2025.pdf", "read_on": "2026-10-25", "licence_layer": "facts-only", "against_result": null, "not_comparable": "Its shares are of all respondents, with 6% null or blank in the base; the release gives no decided-voter version, and rescaling it would be our figure, not the pollster’s.", "note": "Special pre-veda edition dated 30 Oct (summary: 'Jeannette Jara se mantiene en el primer lugar con 27% (-1) ... Un 6% (-1) no manifiesta preferencia'). The PDF was uploaded to criteria.cl on 2025-11-17 (after the election); the original publication date is the document's own date, 30 Oct. A news lead (Ex-Ante) dates the release 31 Oct." } ] }, { "id": "panel-ciudadano-udd", "name": "Panel Ciudadano UDD", "country": "CL", "country_name": "Chile", "countries_polled": [ "CL" ], "modes": [ "online panel (survey sent to a national panel of 3,200 people; 93% response)" ], "aliases": [], "website": "https://www.panelciudadano.cl", "wikidata": null, "registries": [], "note": null, "url": "https://electionindex.org/pollster/panel-ciudadano-udd", "final_polls": [ { "id": "panel-ciudadano-udd/chile-general-2025", "pollster": "panel-ciudadano-udd", "pollster_name": "Panel Ciudadano UDD", "election": "chile-general-2025", "race": "president", "commissioned_by": "Panel Ciudadano – Universidad del Desarrollo (own)", "fieldwork": { "start": "2025-10-30", "end": "2025-10-31" }, "published_at": "2025-11-01", "sample_size": 2972, "mode": "online panel (survey sent to a national panel of 3,200 people; 93% response)", "population": null, "base": "'Pronóstico base 100 (31_oct)' — candidates only", "results": [ { "name": "Jeannette Jara", "pct": 28, "match": "Jeannette Jara Román" }, { "name": "José Antonio Kast", "pct": 23, "match": "José Antonio Kast Rist" }, { "name": "Evelyn Matthei", "pct": 16, "match": "Evelyn Matthei Fornet" }, { "name": "Johannes Kaiser", "pct": 16, "match": "Johannes Kaiser Barents-Von Hohenhagen" }, { "name": "Franco Parisi", "pct": 11, "match": "Franco Parisi Fernández" }, { "name": "Harold Mayne Nicholls", "pct": 3, "match": "Harold Mayne-Nicholls Sécul" }, { "name": "Marco Enríquez Ominami", "pct": 2, "match": "Marco Antonio Enríquez-Ominami Gumucio" }, { "name": "Eduardo Artés", "pct": 1, "match": "Eduardo Antonio Artés Brichetti" } ], "undecided_pct": 5, "registry": null, "source": "https://panelciudadano.cl/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/PanelCiudadano_UDD_Presidencial31oct.pdf", "read_on": "2026-10-25", "licence_layer": "facts-only", "against_result": { "rows": [ { "name": "Jeannette Jara", "match": "Jeannette Jara Román", "poll": 28, "result": 26.8, "error": 1.2 }, { "name": "José Antonio Kast", "match": "José Antonio Kast Rist", "poll": 23, "result": 23.9, "error": -0.9 }, { "name": "Evelyn Matthei", "match": "Evelyn Matthei Fornet", "poll": 16, "result": 12.5, "error": 3.5 }, { "name": "Johannes Kaiser", "match": "Johannes Kaiser Barents-Von Hohenhagen", "poll": 16, "result": 13.9, "error": 2.1 }, { "name": "Franco Parisi", "match": "Franco Parisi Fernández", "poll": 11, "result": 19.7, "error": -8.7 }, { "name": "Harold Mayne Nicholls", "match": "Harold Mayne-Nicholls Sécul", "poll": 3, "result": 1.3, "error": 1.7 }, { "name": "Marco Enríquez Ominami", "match": "Marco Antonio Enríquez-Ominami Gumucio", "poll": 2, "result": 1.2, "error": 0.8 }, { "name": "Eduardo Artés", "match": "Eduardo Antonio Artés Brichetti", "poll": 1, "result": 0.7, "error": 0.3 } ], "mean_abs_error": 2.4, "margin_error": 2.1, "margin_towards": "Jeannette Jara Román", "margin_towards_label": "Jeannette Jara", "leader_same_as_result": true }, "not_comparable": null, "note": "Release post 'Última encuesta Panel Ciudadano-UDD previo a la veda' (https://panelciudadano.cl/ultima-encuesta-panel-ciudadano-udd-previo-a-la-veda-kaiser-alcanza-a-matthei-mientras-kast-se-mantiene-a-la-baja/) is timestamped 2025-11-01 01:12 and the PDF upload 2025-11-01 10:38, i.e. on the first day of the 15-day window if counted from 1 Nov; check whether this counts as 'before the ban'. Report states margin of error 2% (elsewhere 2,8% at maximum variance). Compared on the decided-voter base the release also publishes; its headline figures include the undecided." } ] }, { "id": "skds", "name": "Pētījumu centrs SKDS", "country": "LV", "country_name": "Latvia", "countries_polled": [ "LV" ], "modes": [ "mixed: face-to-face interviews at respondents' homes (50%) and web survey (50%; quota sample)" ], "aliases": [], "website": "https://www.skds.lv", "wikidata": null, "registries": [], "note": null, "url": "https://electionindex.org/pollster/skds", "final_polls": [ { "id": "skds/latvia-parliamentary-2026", "pollster": "skds", "pollster_name": "Pētījumu centrs SKDS", "election": "latvia-parliamentary-2026", "race": "saeima", "commissioned_by": "Latvijas Televīzija / LSM (published by LSM with LTV graphics; the article text does not name the commissioner)", "fieldwork": { "start": "2026-09-04", "end": "2026-09-16" }, "published_at": "2026-09-25", "sample_size": 2035, "mode": "mixed: face-to-face interviews at respondents' homes (50%) and web survey (50%; quota sample)", "population": "Latvijas pastāvīgie iedzīvotāji ar Latvijas valsts pilsonību vecumā no 18 gadiem", "base": "Projection among decided voters: chart 'IESPĒJAMAIS SAEIMAS VĒLĒŠANU IZNĀKUMS, JA BALSSTIESĪGIE BALSO KĀ APTAUJĀ' (text: \"Skatot to aptaujāto atbildes, kuri jau ir izlēmuši, par ko balsot\"). This is the base comparable to a certified result.", "results": [ { "name": "AS", "pct": 22.7, "match": "\"APVIENOTAIS SARAKSTS - Latvijas Zaļā partija, Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība, Liepājas partija\"" }, { "name": "SV/J", "pct": 14.1, "match": "SUVERĒNĀ VARA / APVIENĪBA JAUNLATVIEŠI" }, { "name": "LPV", "pct": 13.3, "match": "LATVIJA PIRMAJĀ VIETĀ" }, { "name": "P", "pct": 10.2, "match": "\"PROGRESĪVIE\"" }, { "name": "NA", "pct": 8.7, "match": "Nacionālā apvienība \"Visu Latvijai!\"-\"Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK\"" }, { "name": "JV", "pct": 6.8, "match": "Jaunā VIENOTĪBA" }, { "name": "ZZS", "pct": 6.5, "match": "Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība" }, { "name": "LA", "pct": 3.7, "match": "\"Latvijas attīstībai\"" }, { "name": "MMN", "pct": 3.7, "match": "\"Mēs mainām noteikumus\"" }, { "name": "St!", "pct": 3.1, "match": "Politiskā partija \"Stabilitātei!\"" }, { "name": "SC", "pct": 2.4, "match": "Politisko partiju apvienība \"Saskaņas Centrs\"" }, { "name": "ASL", "pct": 2, "match": "\"Austošā Saule Latvijai\"" }, { "name": "GS", "pct": 1.8, "match": "\"Gobzema saraksts\"" }, { "name": "JKP", "pct": 0.7, "match": "JKP Jaunā konservatīvā partija" } ], "undecided_pct": 18.7, "registry": null, "source": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261013064747/https://www.lsm.lv/raksts/zinas/latvija/25.09.2026-partiju-reitingi-septembri-saruk-atbalsts-progresivajiem-un-suverenajai-varaiapvienibai-jaunlatviesi-aug-zzs-popularitate-precizets.a664770/", "read_on": "2026-10-25", "licence_layer": "facts-only", "against_result": { "rows": [ { "name": "AS", "match": "\"APVIENOTAIS SARAKSTS - Latvijas Zaļā partija, Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība, Liepājas partija\"", "poll": 22.7, "result": 35.8, "error": -13.1 }, { "name": "SV/J", "match": "SUVERĒNĀ VARA / APVIENĪBA JAUNLATVIEŠI", "poll": 14.1, "result": 11.9, "error": 2.2 }, { "name": "LPV", "match": "LATVIJA PIRMAJĀ VIETĀ", "poll": 13.3, "result": 13.3, "error": 0 }, { "name": "P", "match": "\"PROGRESĪVIE\"", "poll": 10.2, "result": 8, "error": 2.2 }, { "name": "NA", "match": "Nacionālā apvienība \"Visu Latvijai!\"-\"Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK\"", "poll": 8.7, "result": 9, "error": -0.3 }, { "name": "JV", "match": "Jaunā VIENOTĪBA", "poll": 6.8, "result": 6.4, "error": 0.4 }, { "name": "ZZS", "match": "Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība", "poll": 6.5, "result": 4.5, "error": 2 }, { "name": "LA", "match": "\"Latvijas attīstībai\"", "poll": 3.7, "result": 2.2, "error": 1.5 }, { "name": "MMN", "match": "\"Mēs mainām noteikumus\"", "poll": 3.7, "result": 3.5, "error": 0.2 }, { "name": "St!", "match": "Politiskā partija \"Stabilitātei!\"", "poll": 3.1, "result": 2, "error": 1.1 }, { "name": "SC", "match": "Politisko partiju apvienība \"Saskaņas Centrs\"", "poll": 2.4, "result": 0.8, "error": 1.6 }, { "name": "ASL", "match": "\"Austošā Saule Latvijai\"", "poll": 2, "result": 1.3, "error": 0.7 }, { "name": "GS", "match": "\"Gobzema saraksts\"", "poll": 1.8, "result": 1, "error": 0.8 }, { "name": "JKP", "match": "JKP Jaunā konservatīvā partija", "poll": 0.7, "result": 0.3, "error": 0.4 } ], "mean_abs_error": 1.9, "margin_error": -13.1, "margin_towards": "LATVIJA PIRMAJĀ VIETĀ", "margin_towards_label": "LATVIJA PIRMAJĀ VIETĀ", "leader_same_as_result": true }, "not_comparable": null, "note": "Names are the abbreviations printed in the charts; full names in the article: AS = 'Apvienotais saraksts', SV/J = 'Suverēnā vara/Apvienība Jaunlatvieši', LPV = 'Latvija pirmajā vietā', P = 'Progresīvie', NA = Nacionālā apvienība, ZZS = Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība, JV = 'Jaunā Vienotība', St! = 'Stabilitātei!', MMN = 'Mēs mainām noteikumus', LA = 'Latvijas attīstībai', SC = 'Saskaņas centrs', ASL = 'Austošā saule Latvijai', GS = 'Gobzema saraksts', JKP = Jaunā konservatīvā partija. Article is marked '(precizēts)': GS corrected from 1,7 % to 1,2 %. The ZZS figure (4.8) appears only in the chart. Compared on the decided-voter base the release also publishes; its headline figures include the undecided." } ] }, { "id": "infact", "name": "InFact", "country": "NO", "country_name": "Norway", "countries_polled": [ "NO" ], "modes": [ "phone (InFacts automatiske telefonintervjuer / IVR)" ], "aliases": [], "website": "https://www.infact.no", "wikidata": null, "registries": [], "note": null, "url": "https://electionindex.org/pollster/infact", "final_polls": [ { "id": "infact/norway-legislative-2025", "pollster": "infact", "pollster_name": "InFact", "election": "norway-legislative-2025", "race": "storting", "commissioned_by": "Nettavisen", "fieldwork": { "start": "2025-09-02", "end": "2025-09-02" }, "published_at": "2025-09-03", "sample_size": 1109, "mode": "phone (InFacts automatiske telefonintervjuer / IVR)", "population": "Hele landet, innbyggere 18 år+", "base": "Not stated. Question: \"Dersom det var stortingsvalg i morgen, hvilket parti ville du stemme på da?\"; shares sum to 100.1.", "results": [ { "name": "Rødt", "pct": 7.3, "match": "Rødt" }, { "name": "SV - Sosialistisk Venstreparti", "pct": 5.4, "match": "SV - Sosialistisk Venstreparti" }, { "name": "Arbeiderpartiet", "pct": 26.5, "match": "Arbeiderpartiet" }, { "name": "Senterpartiet", "pct": 6.3, "match": "Senterpartiet" }, { "name": "Miljøpartiet de grønne", "pct": 4.6, "match": "Miljøpartiet De Grønne" }, { "name": "Kristelig Folkeparti", "pct": 5.2, "match": "Kristelig Folkeparti" }, { "name": "Venstre", "pct": 5.1, "match": "Venstre" }, { "name": "Høyre", "pct": 13.6, "match": "Høyre" }, { "name": "Fremskrittspartiet", "pct": 21.8, "match": "Fremskrittspartiet" }, { "name": "Andre", "pct": 4.3, "match": null } ], "undecided_pct": null, "registry": null, "source": "https://www.nettavisen.no/nyheter/rodtgront-flertall-i-ny-maling/s/5-95-2598110", "read_on": "2026-10-25", "licence_layer": "facts-only", "against_result": { "rows": [ { "name": "Rødt", "match": "Rødt", "poll": 7.3, "result": 5.3, "error": 2 }, { "name": "SV - Sosialistisk Venstreparti", "match": "SV - Sosialistisk Venstreparti", "poll": 5.4, "result": 5.6, "error": -0.2 }, { "name": "Arbeiderpartiet", "match": "Arbeiderpartiet", "poll": 26.5, "result": 28, "error": -1.5 }, { "name": "Senterpartiet", "match": "Senterpartiet", "poll": 6.3, "result": 5.6, "error": 0.7 }, { "name": "Miljøpartiet de grønne", "match": "Miljøpartiet De Grønne", "poll": 4.6, "result": 4.7, "error": -0.1 }, { "name": "Kristelig Folkeparti", "match": "Kristelig Folkeparti", "poll": 5.2, "result": 4.2, "error": 1 }, { "name": "Venstre", "match": "Venstre", "poll": 5.1, "result": 3.7, "error": 1.4 }, { "name": "Høyre", "match": "Høyre", "poll": 13.6, "result": 14.6, "error": -1 }, { "name": "Fremskrittspartiet", "match": "Fremskrittspartiet", "poll": 21.8, "result": 23.8, "error": -2 } ], "mean_abs_error": 1.1, "margin_error": 0.5, "margin_towards": "Arbeiderpartiet", "margin_towards_label": "Arbeiderpartiet", "leader_same_as_result": true }, "not_comparable": null, "note": "Full party list from the article's embedded poll chart, whose data record is https://services.api.no/api/empiricus/v1/public/political-poll/experiment/54492 ('Nettavisens partibarometer for september 2025', pollingCompany InFact); article text confirms Ap 26,5, Rødt 7,3, Sp 6,3, SV 5,4, H 13,6, Frp 21,8. Weighting: kjønn, alder, geografi og partivalg 2021. Nettavisen's later 'valgdagsmåling' (8 Sep) is an election-day poll, not a pre-election poll. The release does not state its base; its party shares add up to about 100, so they are read as shares of those naming a party." } ] }, { "id": "norfakta", "name": "Norfakta", "country": "NO", "country_name": "Norway", "countries_polled": [ "NO" ], "modes": [ "not stated" ], "aliases": [], "website": "https://norfakta.no", "wikidata": null, "registries": [], "note": null, "url": "https://electionindex.org/pollster/norfakta", "final_polls": [ { "id": "norfakta/norway-legislative-2025", "pollster": "norfakta", "pollster_name": "Norfakta", "election": "norway-legislative-2025", "race": "storting", "commissioned_by": "Nationen (and Klassekampen)", "fieldwork": { "start": "2025-09-01", "end": "2025-09-02" }, "published_at": "2025-09-06", "sample_size": 1004, "mode": "not stated", "population": null, "base": "Not stated; shares sum to 100.0.", "results": [ { "name": "Rødt", "pct": 5.6, "match": "Rødt" }, { "name": "SV - Sosialistisk Venstreparti", "pct": 5.3, "match": "SV - Sosialistisk Venstreparti" }, { "name": "Arbeiderpartiet", "pct": 27, "match": "Arbeiderpartiet" }, { "name": "Senterpartiet", "pct": 7, "match": "Senterpartiet" }, { "name": "Miljøpartiet de grønne", "pct": 6, "match": "Miljøpartiet De Grønne" }, { "name": "Kristelig Folkeparti", "pct": 5.8, "match": "Kristelig Folkeparti" }, { "name": "Venstre", "pct": 4.1, "match": "Venstre" }, { "name": "Høyre", "pct": 13.5, "match": "Høyre" }, { "name": "Fremskrittspartiet", "pct": 20.8, "match": "Fremskrittspartiet" }, { "name": "Andre", "pct": 4.9, "match": null } ], "undecided_pct": null, "registry": null, "source": "https://services.api.no/api/empiricus/v1/public/political-poll/experiment/54738", "read_on": "2026-10-25", "licence_layer": "facts-only", "against_result": { "rows": [ { "name": "Rødt", "match": "Rødt", "poll": 5.6, "result": 5.3, "error": 0.3 }, { "name": "SV - Sosialistisk Venstreparti", "match": "SV - Sosialistisk Venstreparti", "poll": 5.3, "result": 5.6, "error": -0.3 }, { "name": "Arbeiderpartiet", "match": "Arbeiderpartiet", "poll": 27, "result": 28, "error": -1 }, { "name": "Senterpartiet", "match": "Senterpartiet", "poll": 7, "result": 5.6, "error": 1.4 }, { "name": "Miljøpartiet de grønne", "match": "Miljøpartiet De Grønne", "poll": 6, "result": 4.7, "error": 1.3 }, { "name": "Kristelig Folkeparti", "match": "Kristelig Folkeparti", "poll": 5.8, "result": 4.2, "error": 1.6 }, { "name": "Venstre", "match": "Venstre", "poll": 4.1, "result": 3.7, "error": 0.4 }, { "name": "Høyre", "match": "Høyre", "poll": 13.5, "result": 14.6, "error": -1.1 }, { "name": "Fremskrittspartiet", "match": "Fremskrittspartiet", "poll": 20.8, "result": 23.8, "error": -3 } ], "mean_abs_error": 1.2, "margin_error": 2, "margin_towards": "Arbeiderpartiet", "margin_towards_label": "Arbeiderpartiet", "leader_same_as_result": true }, "not_comparable": null, "note": "WEAKER SOURCE: Nationen's article (https://www.nationen.no/valgekspert-om-erna-solberg-jeg-tror-hun-er-ferdig-for-bladene-begynner-a-falle/s/5-148-783782, headline 'Nationen-måling: Nytt bunnivå for Høyre – MDG og Rødt sikrer Støre flertall', datePublished 2025-09-06T01:00+02:00) is paywalled. Figures come from the poll data record Nationen created in its publisher Amedia's poll system (createdBy a nationen.no editor, sourcePublication 'Nationen'), which feeds the article's chart. Klassekampen co-commissioning is from a lead only (pollofpolls), not confirmed on a primary page. The release does not state its base; its party shares add up to about 100, so they are read as shares of those naming a party." } ] }, { "id": "norstat", "name": "Norstat", "country": "NO", "country_name": "Norway", "countries_polled": [ "NO" ], "modes": [ "not stated in the article" ], "aliases": [], "website": "https://norstat.no", "wikidata": null, "registries": [], "note": null, "url": "https://electionindex.org/pollster/norstat", "final_polls": [ { "id": "norstat/norway-legislative-2025", "pollster": "norstat", "pollster_name": "Norstat", "election": "norway-legislative-2025", "race": "storting", "commissioned_by": "NRK, Vårt Land and Dagbladet", "fieldwork": { "start": "2025-09-01", "end": "2025-09-04" }, "published_at": "2025-09-05", "sample_size": 2000, "mode": "not stated in the article", "population": null, "base": "Not stated. Shares sum to ~100 across parties incl. minor parties; no undecided category shown.", "results": [ { "name": "A", "pct": 26.4, "match": "Arbeiderpartiet" }, { "name": "FRP", "pct": 20.4, "match": "Fremskrittspartiet" }, { "name": "H", "pct": 14.3, "match": "Høyre" }, { "name": "MDG", "pct": 7.2, "match": "Miljøpartiet De Grønne" }, { "name": "RØDT", "pct": 6.9, "match": "Rødt" }, { "name": "SP", "pct": 6.2, "match": "Senterpartiet" }, { "name": "SV", "pct": 6, "match": "SV - Sosialistisk Venstreparti" }, { "name": "V", "pct": 4.3, "match": "Venstre" }, { "name": "KRF", "pct": 4.2, "match": "Kristelig Folkeparti" }, { "name": "DEMN", "pct": 1.2, "match": null }, { "name": "PP", "pct": 0.9, "match": null }, { "name": "INP", "pct": 0.7, "match": null }, { "name": "KRISTNE", "pct": 0.4, "match": null }, { "name": "OTHER", "pct": 0.3, "match": null }, { "name": "PS", "pct": 0.3, "match": null }, { "name": "GENP", "pct": 0.2, "match": null }, { "name": "(unnamed)", "pct": 0.1, "match": null } ], "undecided_pct": null, "registry": null, "source": "https://www.nrk.no/norge/beste-nrk-maling-for-mdg-noensinne_-sorger-for-rodgront-flertall-1.17555797", "read_on": "2026-10-25", "licence_layer": "facts-only", "against_result": { "rows": [ { "name": "A", "match": "Arbeiderpartiet", "poll": 26.4, "result": 28, "error": -1.6 }, { "name": "FRP", "match": "Fremskrittspartiet", "poll": 20.4, "result": 23.8, "error": -3.4 }, { "name": "H", "match": "Høyre", "poll": 14.3, "result": 14.6, "error": -0.3 }, { "name": "MDG", "match": "Miljøpartiet De Grønne", "poll": 7.2, "result": 4.7, "error": 2.5 }, { "name": "RØDT", "match": "Rødt", "poll": 6.9, "result": 5.3, "error": 1.6 }, { "name": "SP", "match": "Senterpartiet", "poll": 6.2, "result": 5.6, "error": 0.6 }, { "name": "SV", "match": "SV - Sosialistisk Venstreparti", "poll": 6, "result": 5.6, "error": 0.4 }, { "name": "V", "match": "Venstre", "poll": 4.3, "result": 3.7, "error": 0.6 }, { "name": "KRF", "match": "Kristelig Folkeparti", "poll": 4.2, "result": 4.2, "error": 0 } ], "mean_abs_error": 1.2, "margin_error": 1.8, "margin_towards": "Arbeiderpartiet", "margin_towards_label": "Arbeiderpartiet", "leader_same_as_result": true }, "not_comparable": null, "note": "Figures from the article's own 'Partimåling fra Norstat for september 2025 med 2 000 spurte' widget: names are NRK's party IDs in that widget (A = Arbeiderpartiet etc.), values are the widget's raw shares rounded to 1 dp (e.g. A 0.26423407); the article text confirms Ap 26,4, H 14,3, MDG 7,2. Fieldwork start inferred from 'denne veka' (week of Mon 1 Sep); end = Thursday 4 Sep. The release does not state its base; its party shares add up to about 100, so they are read as shares of those naming a party." } ] }, { "id": "opinion-no", "name": "Opinion", "country": "NO", "country_name": "Norway", "countries_polled": [ "NO" ], "modes": [ "phone" ], "aliases": [], "website": "https://opinion.no", "wikidata": null, "registries": [], "note": null, "url": "https://electionindex.org/pollster/opinion-no", "final_polls": [ { "id": "opinion-no/norway-legislative-2025", "pollster": "opinion-no", "pollster_name": "Opinion", "election": "norway-legislative-2025", "race": "storting", "commissioned_by": "FriFagbevegelse and Dagsavisen", "fieldwork": { "start": "2025-08-27", "end": "2025-09-03" }, "published_at": "2025-09-04", "sample_size": 1000, "mode": "phone", "population": null, "base": "Share of those stating a party preference: \"85 prosent har avgitt svar om partireferanse. Dette tilsvarer 848 respondenter.\"", "results": [ { "name": "Rødt", "pct": 6.6, "match": "Rødt" }, { "name": "SV", "pct": 8, "match": "SV - Sosialistisk Venstreparti" }, { "name": "Ap", "pct": 27.5, "match": "Arbeiderpartiet" }, { "name": "Sp", "pct": 5.4, "match": "Senterpartiet" }, { "name": "MDG", "pct": 6.3, "match": "Miljøpartiet De Grønne" }, { "name": "KrF", "pct": 6.1, "match": "Kristelig Folkeparti" }, { "name": "Venstre", "pct": 4.2, "match": "Venstre" }, { "name": "Høyre", "pct": 13.1, "match": "Høyre" }, { "name": "Frp", "pct": 19.6, "match": "Fremskrittspartiet" }, { "name": "Andre", "pct": 3.2, "match": null } ], "undecided_pct": null, "registry": null, "source": "https://frifagbevegelse.no/nyheter/jubeltall-for-store-fa-dager-for-valget-6.158.1160929.327e9fd7ed", "read_on": "2026-10-25", "licence_layer": "facts-only", "against_result": { "rows": [ { "name": "Rødt", "match": "Rødt", "poll": 6.6, "result": 5.3, "error": 1.3 }, { "name": "SV", "match": "SV - Sosialistisk Venstreparti", "poll": 8, "result": 5.6, "error": 2.4 }, { "name": "Ap", "match": "Arbeiderpartiet", "poll": 27.5, "result": 28, "error": -0.5 }, { "name": "Sp", "match": "Senterpartiet", "poll": 5.4, "result": 5.6, "error": -0.2 }, { "name": "MDG", "match": "Miljøpartiet De Grønne", "poll": 6.3, "result": 4.7, "error": 1.6 }, { "name": "KrF", "match": "Kristelig Folkeparti", "poll": 6.1, "result": 4.2, "error": 1.9 }, { "name": "Venstre", "match": "Venstre", "poll": 4.2, "result": 3.7, "error": 0.5 }, { "name": "Høyre", "match": "Høyre", "poll": 13.1, "result": 14.6, "error": -1.5 }, { "name": "Frp", "match": "Fremskrittspartiet", "poll": 19.6, "result": 23.8, "error": -4.2 } ], "mean_abs_error": 1.6, "margin_error": 3.7, "margin_towards": "Arbeiderpartiet", "margin_towards_label": "Ap", "leader_same_as_result": true }, "not_comparable": null, "note": "Article calls it 'den siste målingen som Opinion har gjort for FriFagbevegelse og Dagsavisen før valget 8. september'. Full table from the article's embedded Datawrapper chart 'PARTIBAROMETER SEPTEMBER 2025' (source 'Opinion/FriFagbevegelse', datawrapper.dwcdn.net/tcbho/1), reconstructed from the chart's stored edits; text confirms Ap 27,5, Sp 5,4, H 13,1, MDG 6,3. 848 of 1000 stated a party." } ] }, { "id": "respons-analyse", "name": "Respons Analyse", "country": "NO", "country_name": "Norway", "countries_polled": [ "NO" ], "modes": [ "phone" ], "aliases": [], "website": "https://responsanalyse.no", "wikidata": null, "registries": [], "note": null, "url": "https://electionindex.org/pollster/respons-analyse", "final_polls": [ { "id": "respons-analyse/norway-legislative-2025", "pollster": "respons-analyse", "pollster_name": "Respons Analyse", "election": "norway-legislative-2025", "race": "storting", "commissioned_by": "VG, Aftenposten and Bergens Tidende", "fieldwork": { "start": "2025-09-01", "end": "2025-09-05" }, "published_at": "2025-09-06", "sample_size": 1001, "mode": "phone", "population": null, "base": "Share of those stating a party preference: \"Barometeret er basert på 1001 intervjuer. 86 prosent har avgitt svar om partipreferanse.\" Also weighted using 2021 vote recall.", "results": [ { "name": "Ap", "pct": 29.5, "match": "Arbeiderpartiet" }, { "name": "Frp", "pct": 18.9, "match": "Fremskrittspartiet" }, { "name": "Høyre", "pct": 14.9, "match": "Høyre" }, { "name": "Rødt", "pct": 6.4, "match": "Rødt" }, { "name": "Sp", "pct": 6.2, "match": "Senterpartiet" }, { "name": "SV", "pct": 5.8, "match": "SV - Sosialistisk Venstreparti" }, { "name": "MDG", "pct": 5.6, "match": "Miljøpartiet De Grønne" }, { "name": "KrF", "pct": 5.1, "match": "Kristelig Folkeparti" }, { "name": "Venstre", "pct": 4.5, "match": "Venstre" }, { "name": "Andre", "pct": 3.1, "match": null } ], "undecided_pct": null, "registry": null, "source": "https://responsanalyse.no/politikk-og-samfunn/partibarometer2-september-25/", "read_on": "2026-10-25", "licence_layer": "facts-only", "against_result": { "rows": [ { "name": "Ap", "match": "Arbeiderpartiet", "poll": 29.5, "result": 28, "error": 1.5 }, { "name": "Frp", "match": "Fremskrittspartiet", "poll": 18.9, "result": 23.8, "error": -4.9 }, { "name": "Høyre", "match": "Høyre", "poll": 14.9, "result": 14.6, "error": 0.3 }, { "name": "Rødt", "match": "Rødt", "poll": 6.4, "result": 5.3, "error": 1.1 }, { "name": "Sp", "match": "Senterpartiet", "poll": 6.2, "result": 5.6, "error": 0.6 }, { "name": "SV", "match": "SV - Sosialistisk Venstreparti", "poll": 5.8, "result": 5.6, "error": 0.2 }, { "name": "MDG", "match": "Miljøpartiet De Grønne", "poll": 5.6, "result": 4.7, "error": 0.9 }, { "name": "KrF", "match": "Kristelig Folkeparti", "poll": 5.1, "result": 4.2, "error": 0.9 }, { "name": "Venstre", "match": "Venstre", "poll": 4.5, "result": 3.7, "error": 0.8 } ], "mean_abs_error": 1.2, "margin_error": 6.4, "margin_towards": "Arbeiderpartiet", "margin_towards_label": "Ap", "leader_same_as_result": true }, "not_comparable": null, "note": "Respons's own post ('vår siste måling før stortingsvalget', column 'Sept.25 II'); first published by VG on 06.09.25 15:00 (https://www.vg.no/nyheter/i/B0g3WE/..., opened but paywalled, so figures taken from Respons's page). Andre = Norgesdemokratene 1.0, Konservativt 0.7, Generasjonspartiet 0.6, INP 0.5, Pensjonistpartiet 0.2, Det norske Industriparti 0.1." } ] }, { "id": "demoskop", "name": "Demoskop", "country": "SE", "country_name": "Sweden", "countries_polled": [ "SE" ], "modes": [ "online panel (web survey, 'Iniziopanelen')" ], "aliases": [], "website": "https://demoskop.se", "wikidata": null, "registries": [], "note": null, "url": "https://electionindex.org/pollster/demoskop", "final_polls": [ { "id": "demoskop/sweden-general-2026", "pollster": "demoskop", "pollster_name": "Demoskop", "election": "sweden-general-2026", "race": "riksdag", "commissioned_by": "Aftonbladet and Svenska Dagbladet", "fieldwork": { "start": "2026-09-07", "end": "2026-09-11" }, "published_at": "2026-09-11", "sample_size": 1419, "mode": "online panel (web survey, 'Iniziopanelen')", "population": "allmänheten 18 år och uppåt", "base": "Not stated. Question: \"Vilket parti skulle du rösta på om det var riksdagsval idag?\", with up to two follow-up questions for those unsure of their party. Others not reported (named parties sum to 98.5).", "results": [ { "name": "Socialdemokraterna", "pct": 29.7, "match": "Arbetarepartiet-Socialdemokraterna" }, { "name": "Sverigedemokraterna", "pct": 19, "match": "Sverigedemokraterna" }, { "name": "Moderaterna", "pct": 16.7, "match": "Moderaterna" }, { "name": "Kristdemokraterna", "pct": 7.6, "match": "Kristdemokraterna" }, { "name": "Centerpartiet", "pct": 7.7, "match": "Centerpartiet" }, { "name": "Vänsterpartiet", "pct": 7.5, "match": "Vänsterpartiet" }, { "name": "Miljöpartiet", "pct": 5.6, "match": "Miljöpartiet de gröna" }, { "name": "Liberalerna", "pct": 4.7, "match": "Liberalerna (tidigare Folkpartiet)" } ], "undecided_pct": null, "registry": null, "source": "https://demoskop.se/demoskops-sista-matning-fore-riksdagsvalet-2026/", "read_on": "2026-10-25", "licence_layer": "facts-only", "against_result": { "rows": [ { "name": "Socialdemokraterna", "match": "Arbetarepartiet-Socialdemokraterna", "poll": 29.7, "result": 28, "error": 1.7 }, { "name": "Sverigedemokraterna", "match": "Sverigedemokraterna", "poll": 19, "result": 17.5, "error": 1.5 }, { "name": "Moderaterna", "match": "Moderaterna", "poll": 16.7, "result": 19.9, "error": -3.2 }, { "name": "Kristdemokraterna", "match": "Kristdemokraterna", "poll": 7.6, "result": 6.2, "error": 1.4 }, { "name": "Centerpartiet", "match": "Centerpartiet", "poll": 7.7, "result": 7, "error": 0.7 }, { "name": "Vänsterpartiet", "match": "Vänsterpartiet", "poll": 7.5, "result": 8.4, "error": -0.9 }, { "name": "Miljöpartiet", "match": "Miljöpartiet de gröna", "poll": 5.6, "result": 6.1, "error": -0.5 }, { "name": "Liberalerna", "match": "Liberalerna (tidigare Folkpartiet)", "poll": 4.7, "result": 5.3, "error": -0.6 } ], "mean_abs_error": 1.3, "margin_error": 4.8, "margin_towards": "Arbetarepartiet-Socialdemokraterna", "margin_towards_label": "Socialdemokraterna", "leader_same_as_result": true }, "not_comparable": null, "note": "Demoskop says it does not publish margins of error because the panel is not a pure random sample. Fieldwork end date equals the publication date. 'Övriga' share not given; do not infer it. The release does not state its base; its party shares add up to about 100, so they are read as shares of those naming a party." } ] }, { "id": "indikator-opinion", "name": "Indikator Opinion", "country": "SE", "country_name": "Sweden", "countries_polled": [ "SE" ], "modes": [ "mixed: short postal questionnaire with web and phone-in options; reminders by SMS and Kivra digital mail (random sample of 5642, 39% response)" ], "aliases": [], "website": "https://www.indikator.org", "wikidata": null, "registries": [], "note": null, "url": "https://electionindex.org/pollster/indikator-opinion", "final_polls": [ { "id": "indikator-opinion/sweden-general-2026", "pollster": "indikator-opinion", "pollster_name": "Indikator Opinion", "election": "sweden-general-2026", "race": "riksdag", "commissioned_by": "Sveriges Radio Ekot", "fieldwork": { "start": "2026-09-02", "end": "2026-09-10" }, "published_at": "2026-09-11", "sample_size": 2189, "mode": "mixed: short postal questionnaire with web and phone-in options; reminders by SMS and Kivra digital mail (random sample of 5642, 39% response)", "population": "slumpmässigt urval av röstberättigade svenskar över 18 år", "base": "Not stated in words; shares incl. Övriga sum to 100.0. Those who could not or would not state a vote intention were asked which party they like best (\"De som inte kunde eller ville ange röstningsintention fick frågan om vilket parti de tycker bäst om\"), so leaners are allocated.", "results": [ { "name": "Vänsterpartiet", "pct": 7.8, "match": "Vänsterpartiet" }, { "name": "Miljöpartiet", "pct": 6.9, "match": "Miljöpartiet de gröna" }, { "name": "Socialdemokraterna", "pct": 28.6, "match": "Arbetarepartiet-Socialdemokraterna" }, { "name": "Centerpartiet", "pct": 7.5, "match": "Centerpartiet" }, { "name": "Liberalerna", "pct": 5.4, "match": "Liberalerna (tidigare Folkpartiet)" }, { "name": "Moderaterna", "pct": 16.8, "match": "Moderaterna" }, { "name": "Kristdemokraterna", "pct": 7.1, "match": "Kristdemokraterna" }, { "name": "Sverigedemokraterna", "pct": 18.3, "match": "Sverigedemokraterna" }, { "name": "Övriga", "pct": 1.6, "match": null } ], "undecided_pct": null, "registry": null, "source": "https://www.indikator.org/opinion-sr-11-september-2026/", "read_on": "2026-10-25", "licence_layer": "facts-only", "against_result": { "rows": [ { "name": "Vänsterpartiet", "match": "Vänsterpartiet", "poll": 7.8, "result": 8.4, "error": -0.6 }, { "name": "Miljöpartiet", "match": "Miljöpartiet de gröna", "poll": 6.9, "result": 6.1, "error": 0.8 }, { "name": "Socialdemokraterna", "match": "Arbetarepartiet-Socialdemokraterna", "poll": 28.6, "result": 28, "error": 0.6 }, { "name": "Centerpartiet", "match": "Centerpartiet", "poll": 7.5, "result": 7, "error": 0.5 }, { "name": "Liberalerna", "match": "Liberalerna (tidigare Folkpartiet)", "poll": 5.4, "result": 5.3, "error": 0.1 }, { "name": "Moderaterna", "match": "Moderaterna", "poll": 16.8, "result": 19.9, "error": -3.1 }, { "name": "Kristdemokraterna", "match": "Kristdemokraterna", "poll": 7.1, "result": 6.2, "error": 0.9 }, { "name": "Sverigedemokraterna", "match": "Sverigedemokraterna", "poll": 18.3, "result": 17.5, "error": 0.8 } ], "mean_abs_error": 0.9, "margin_error": 3.6, "margin_towards": "Arbetarepartiet-Socialdemokraterna", "margin_towards_label": "Socialdemokraterna", "leader_same_as_result": true }, "not_comparable": null, "note": "Column label 'September (2026) 11/9' in the page's data table; the earlier September release (column '4/9', fieldwork 18 Aug-4 Sep) is superseded. Question asked: \"Vilket parti kommer du att rösta på i riksdagsvalet den 13:e september?\" (the chart caption uses the generic 'om det var riksdagsval idag' wording). Page published 2026-09-11 07:56 (WordPress date). Results weighted on sex, age and 2022 vote. The release does not state its base; its party shares add up to about 100, so they are read as shares of those naming a party." } ] }, { "id": "novus", "name": "Novus", "country": "SE", "country_name": "Sweden", "countries_polled": [ "SE" ], "modes": [ "mixed: primarily via Kivra (digital mailbox) and SMS, telephone for the oldest age group; random individual sample" ], "aliases": [], "website": "https://novus.se", "wikidata": null, "registries": [], "note": null, "url": "https://electionindex.org/pollster/novus", "final_polls": [ { "id": "novus/sweden-general-2026", "pollster": "novus", "pollster_name": "Novus", "election": "sweden-general-2026", "race": "riksdag", "commissioned_by": "Novus (own väljarbarometer; no media client named)", "fieldwork": { "start": "2026-09-07", "end": "2026-09-10" }, "published_at": "2026-09-11", "sample_size": 5928, "mode": "mixed: primarily via Kivra (digital mailbox) and SMS, telephone for the oldest age group; random individual sample", "population": "röstberättigade svenskar i åldern 18 år och uppåt utan övre åldersgräns", "base": "Not stated in words. Party shares incl. 'Annat' sum to 100.0; uncertain voters are reported separately (\"andelen osäkra väljare ... är 0,8 procent\"), i.e. excluded from the base.", "results": [ { "name": "M", "pct": 18.1, "match": "Moderaterna" }, { "name": "L", "pct": 4.7, "match": "Liberalerna (tidigare Folkpartiet)" }, { "name": "C", "pct": 9.2, "match": "Centerpartiet" }, { "name": "KD", "pct": 5.5, "match": "Kristdemokraterna" }, { "name": "S", "pct": 28.6, "match": "Arbetarepartiet-Socialdemokraterna" }, { "name": "V", "pct": 6.6, "match": "Vänsterpartiet" }, { "name": "MP", "pct": 6.4, "match": "Miljöpartiet de gröna" }, { "name": "SD", "pct": 19.5, "match": "Sverigedemokraterna" }, { "name": "Annat", "pct": 1.4, "match": null } ], "undecided_pct": 0.8, "registry": null, "source": "https://novus.se/valjarbarometer-arkiv/11-september-2026/", "read_on": "2026-10-25", "licence_layer": "facts-only", "against_result": { "rows": [ { "name": "M", "match": "Moderaterna", "poll": 18.1, "result": 19.9, "error": -1.8 }, { "name": "L", "match": "Liberalerna (tidigare Folkpartiet)", "poll": 4.7, "result": 5.3, "error": -0.6 }, { "name": "C", "match": "Centerpartiet", "poll": 9.2, "result": 7, "error": 2.2 }, { "name": "KD", "match": "Kristdemokraterna", "poll": 5.5, "result": 6.2, "error": -0.7 }, { "name": "S", "match": "Arbetarepartiet-Socialdemokraterna", "poll": 28.6, "result": 28, "error": 0.6 }, { "name": "V", "match": "Vänsterpartiet", "poll": 6.6, "result": 8.4, "error": -1.8 }, { "name": "MP", "match": "Miljöpartiet de gröna", "poll": 6.4, "result": 6.1, "error": 0.3 }, { "name": "SD", "match": "Sverigedemokraterna", "poll": 19.5, "result": 17.5, "error": 2 } ], "mean_abs_error": 1.3, "margin_error": 2.3, "margin_towards": "Arbetarepartiet-Socialdemokraterna", "margin_towards_label": "Arbetarepartiet-Socialdemokraterna", "leader_same_as_result": true }, "not_comparable": null, "note": "Party figures are in Novus's own Infogram table embedded in the page (https://e.infogram.com/vb-tabell-11-september-2026-1hnp27ej93m8y4g, column '11 sep 26'); page text confirms C 9,2, MP 6,4, L 4,7. Novus also asked whether respondents had already voted early and on which party. Novus ran a separate TV4-commissioned poll published 9 Sep (column '9 sep 26'); the 11 Sep own release is later, so it is the final. The release does not state its base; its party shares add up to about 100, so they are read as shares of those naming a party." } ] }, { "id": "verian", "name": "Verian", "country": "SE", "country_name": "Sweden", "countries_polled": [ "SE" ], "modes": [ "mixed: web survey in the randomly recruited Sifo panel + telephone interviews from a random sample" ], "aliases": [], "website": "https://www.veriangroup.com/se", "wikidata": null, "registries": [], "note": null, "url": "https://electionindex.org/pollster/verian", "final_polls": [ { "id": "verian/sweden-general-2026", "pollster": "verian", "pollster_name": "Verian", "election": "sweden-general-2026", "race": "riksdag", "commissioned_by": "SVT", "fieldwork": { "start": "2026-09-04", "end": "2026-09-10" }, "published_at": "2026-09-11", "sample_size": 3063, "mode": "mixed: web survey in the randomly recruited Sifo panel + telephone interviews from a random sample", "population": "Allmänheten 18 år – äldre", "base": "Share of those stating a party: \"Gäller denna väljarbarometer med basen 3 063 intervjuer (som har angett parti)\"; column totals 100.", "results": [ { "name": "S", "pct": 27.6, "match": "Arbetarepartiet-Socialdemokraterna" }, { "name": "V", "pct": 7.7, "match": "Vänsterpartiet" }, { "name": "C", "pct": 8.2, "match": "Centerpartiet" }, { "name": "MP", "pct": 8, "match": "Miljöpartiet de gröna" }, { "name": "SD", "pct": 18.1, "match": "Sverigedemokraterna" }, { "name": "M", "pct": 15.8, "match": "Moderaterna" }, { "name": "KD", "pct": 6.5, "match": "Kristdemokraterna" }, { "name": "L", "pct": 5.5, "match": "Liberalerna (tidigare Folkpartiet)" }, { "name": "Övriga", "pct": 2.7, "match": null } ], "undecided_pct": 9.3, "registry": null, "source": "https://www.veriangroup.com/hubfs/SE/Valjarbarometern/Verian-Valjarbarometer_4-10-september-2026.pdf", "read_on": "2026-10-25", "licence_layer": "facts-only", "against_result": { "rows": [ { "name": "S", "match": "Arbetarepartiet-Socialdemokraterna", "poll": 27.6, "result": 28, "error": -0.4 }, { "name": "V", "match": "Vänsterpartiet", "poll": 7.7, "result": 8.4, "error": -0.7 }, { "name": "C", "match": "Centerpartiet", "poll": 8.2, "result": 7, "error": 1.2 }, { "name": "MP", "match": "Miljöpartiet de gröna", "poll": 8, "result": 6.1, "error": 1.9 }, { "name": "SD", "match": "Sverigedemokraterna", "poll": 18.1, "result": 17.5, "error": 0.6 }, { "name": "M", "match": "Moderaterna", "poll": 15.8, "result": 19.9, "error": -4.1 }, { "name": "KD", "match": "Kristdemokraterna", "poll": 6.5, "result": 6.2, "error": 0.3 }, { "name": "L", "match": "Liberalerna (tidigare Folkpartiet)", "poll": 5.5, "result": 5.3, "error": 0.2 } ], "mean_abs_error": 1.2, "margin_error": 3.6, "margin_towards": "Arbetarepartiet-Socialdemokraterna", "margin_towards_label": "Arbetarepartiet-Socialdemokraterna", "leader_same_as_result": true }, "not_comparable": null, "note": "Release page https://www.veriangroup.com/sv/news-and-insights/valjarbarometer-11-september-2026 calls it the poll two days before election day. Supersedes the 3 Sep edition (fieldwork 20 Aug-2 Sep). Table row 'Intervjuer' says 3178 while the base/method say 3 063 who stated a party; 'Anger ej parti 9,3' is reported separately and excluded from the shares. Sweden's GU accuracy report (lead only) lists a 7-day final Verian field period, consistent with this edition." } ] } ], "meta": { "dataset_version": "2026-10-26.74f9bab4", "built_at": "2026-10-26T08:01:24Z", "generated_at": "2026-10-26T18:48:29.355Z", "licence": "CC BY 4.0: credit \"Global Election Index (electionindex.org)\" and link to https://electionindex.org", "docs": "https://electionindex.org/docs" } }