{ "data": { "id": "canada-legislative-2029", "country": "CA", "country_name": "Canada", "level": "national", "subdivision": null, "subdivision_name": null, "date": "2029-10-15", "date_status": "tentative", "kind": "legislative", "conditional": null, "timezone": "America/Toronto", "status": "scheduled", "last_verified_at": "2026-10-02T12:00:00Z", "stale": false, "stale_reason": null, "provenance": { "from": "researcher agent 2026-10-02: Canada Elections Act ss.56.1, 56.2, 57, 62, 128, 293-301, 313, 317, 524-527 (laws-lois.justice.gc.ca, current to 2026-09-21); Elections Canada Report on the 45th General Election ch. 2-3 and 28 Apr 2025 news release (elections.ca); ENR results site and download (enr.elections.ca); Canada Gazette Part I Extra Nos. 7 and 13, 2025 (gazette.gc.ca); pm.gc.ca cabinet releases 2019, 2021, 2025", "licence": "CC BY 4.0 (Election Index)" }, "url": "https://electionindex.org/election/canada-legislative-2029", "races": [ { "id": "house", "key": "canada-legislative-2029/house", "name": "House of Commons", "body": "legislature-lower", "seats": 343, "seats_provisional": false, "polls_close_utc": "2029-10-16T02:00:00Z", "authority": { "id": "ca-ec", "name": "Elections Canada", "name_local": "Élections Canada", "role": "electoral-commission", "homepage": "https://www.elections.ca/", "results_index": "https://enr.elections.ca/", "open_data": "https://enr.elections.ca/DownloadResults.aspx" }, "status": "scheduled", "expected_stage_now": null, "observed": false, "final_observed": null, "final_expected": { "from": "2029-10-23T12:00:00Z", "by": "2029-12-01T04:59:59Z", "confidence": "precedent", "basis": "The final act is the return of the writ: s.313(1): the returning officer, 'without delay after the sixth day that follows the completion of the validation of results or, if there is a recount, without delay after receiving the certificate' of the judge, declares the candidate with the most votes elected on the back of the writ; s.317: the Chief Electoral Officer publishes each member's name in the Canada Gazette as the returns arrive. 'Final' here means all 343 returns received and gazetted. Precedent 2025 (polling 28 Apr): first Gazette notice of returns 9 May 2025 (Extra No. 7, day 11); last returns (NWT, Nunavut, and the recount districts Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore and Terra Nova—The Peninsulas) notice dated 23 May, published 26 May 2025 (Extra No. 13, day 28). Statutory chain without a recount: validation by day 7, or day 28 with the maximum adjournments, plus six days — day 34 (19 Nov 2029); a recount adds a request within four days (s.300(1)), a date fixed within four days after it (s.300(3)) and the recount itself, which has no fixed length. The opening (Tue 23 Oct 08:00 EDT, the earliest a return can follow a validation on 16 Oct) is an ESTIMATED floor. The window ERRS LATE: it closes at the end of Friday 30 Nov 2029 EST (day 46), 18 days past the 2025 last notice and 12 days past the no-recount statutory maximum. A contested-election application to a court is possible within 30 days of Gazette publication (s.527; 2025: Terrebonne, filed 23 May 2025 and later annulled with a by-election), but no court must confirm the result, so there is no court-validation stage." }, "last_final": null, "previous": null, "stages": [ { "stage": "election-night", "from": "2029-10-15T23:00:00Z", "by": "2029-10-16T12:00:00Z", "replacedAt": "2029-10-16T12:00:00Z", "confidence": "estimate", "citation": "DATE (tentative): Canada Elections Act s.56.1(2): 'each general election must be held on the third Monday of October in the fourth calendar year following polling day for the last general election'. The last polling day was 28 Apr 2025, so the fourth calendar year after it is 2029; October 2029 starts on a Monday (1, 8, 15), so the third Monday is 15 Oct 2029. s.56.2: the Chief Electoral Officer may recommend another day if that Monday conflicts with a day of cultural or religious significance or a provincial or municipal election, and the alternate day must be Tuesday 16 Oct or Monday 22 Oct 2029; the order cannot be made after 1 Aug 2029. Snap-election risk: s.56.1(1) leaves the Governor General's power to dissolve Parliament untouched (the 2025 election itself followed a dissolution on 23 Mar 2025, EC report ch. 2); polling day is then fixed by proclamation 36 to 50 days after the writs (s.57(1.2)(c)). POLLS: s.128(1): 8:30 a.m.-8:30 p.m. in the Newfoundland, Atlantic and Central zones, 9:30-9:30 Eastern, 7:30-7:30 Mountain, 7:00-7:00 Pacific; s.128(2): while the rest of Canada is on daylight saving time, Saskatchewan votes 7:30-7:30 (Central-zone districts) — as in the 2025 EC release. Daylight saving time runs until Sunday 4 Nov 2029, so on 15 Oct: Newfoundland 20:30 NDT = 23:00 UTC; Atlantic 20:30 ADT = 23:30 UTC; Eastern 21:30 EDT, Central 20:30 CDT, Saskatchewan 19:30 CST and Mountain 19:30 MDT = 01:30 UTC on 16 Oct; Pacific 19:00 PDT = 02:00 UTC. Yukon (UTC-7 all year) voted 7 a.m.-7 p.m. local in 2025 (CBC North, 28 Apr 2025, not checked on elections.ca), also 02:00 UTC. pollsCloseUtc is the LAST close, 02:00 UTC, the convention of the Australia, Russia and US models. Counting starts at each poll when it closes (advance-poll counting may start one hour earlier with the CEO's approval, EC report ch. 3) and preliminary results appear on the ENR site as statements of the vote are phoned in. The window opens at the Newfoundland close and closes at 08:00 EDT Tuesday — an ESTIMATE, not a published time; in 2025 EC reports that results distribution continued through election night. Preliminary, unofficial results only.", "source": null, "observedAt": null, "observedSource": null }, { "stage": "intermediate-count", "from": "2029-10-16T12:00:00Z", "by": "2029-11-13T04:59:59Z", "replacedAt": null, "confidence": "announced", "citation": "Validation of results: s.62(c): each returning officer's Notice of Election fixes 'the date and time, not later than seven days after polling day, for the validation of results' (by Mon 22 Oct 2029); s.293(1): the returning officer validates the results from the original statements of the vote; s.293(2)-(3): if ballot boxes are missing it is adjourned for up to seven days, and further adjournments may not exceed two weeks in total — so the latest validation is day 28, Mon 12 Nov 2029 (window closes at the end of that day, EST). The validated figures replace the preliminary ones on the same ENR district page ('Results Validated by the Returning Officer', with a Validation Date). Precedent 2025 (EC report ch. 3): 341 of 343 districts validated by 5 May (day 7); Northwest Territories 9 May and Nunavut 16 May (day 18) after weather delays; Terrebonne was validated on 1 May (day 3). The opening (Tuesday 08:00 EDT) is an ESTIMATED floor. Validated results are official but not yet final: a judicial recount (automatic if the margin is under 1/1000 of votes cast, s.300; or on an elector's application within four days, s.301) can change them — four recounts in 2025, one of which changed the winner.", "source": null, "observedAt": null, "observedSource": null }, { "stage": "final-result", "from": "2029-10-23T12:00:00Z", "by": "2029-12-01T04:59:59Z", "replacedAt": null, "confidence": "precedent", "citation": "The final act is the return of the writ: s.313(1): the returning officer, 'without delay after the sixth day that follows the completion of the validation of results or, if there is a recount, without delay after receiving the certificate' of the judge, declares the candidate with the most votes elected on the back of the writ; s.317: the Chief Electoral Officer publishes each member's name in the Canada Gazette as the returns arrive. 'Final' here means all 343 returns received and gazetted. Precedent 2025 (polling 28 Apr): first Gazette notice of returns 9 May 2025 (Extra No. 7, day 11); last returns (NWT, Nunavut, and the recount districts Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore and Terra Nova—The Peninsulas) notice dated 23 May, published 26 May 2025 (Extra No. 13, day 28). Statutory chain without a recount: validation by day 7, or day 28 with the maximum adjournments, plus six days — day 34 (19 Nov 2029); a recount adds a request within four days (s.300(1)), a date fixed within four days after it (s.300(3)) and the recount itself, which has no fixed length. The opening (Tue 23 Oct 08:00 EDT, the earliest a return can follow a validation on 16 Oct) is an ESTIMATED floor. The window ERRS LATE: it closes at the end of Friday 30 Nov 2029 EST (day 46), 18 days past the 2025 last notice and 12 days past the no-recount statutory maximum. A contested-election application to a court is possible within 30 days of Gazette publication (s.527; 2025: Terrebonne, filed 23 May 2025 and later annulled with a by-election), but no court must confirm the result, so there is no court-validation stage.", "source": null, "observedAt": null, "observedSource": null }, { "stage": "government", "from": null, "by": null, "replacedAt": null, "confidence": "precedent", "citation": "No statutory step: the Prime Minister and ministry stay in office through the election; after it the Governor General appoints or keeps a Prime Minister who can command the confidence of the House, and the new ministry or cabinet is sworn in at Rideau Hall, usually before all returns are in. Precedent (Prime Minister's Office news releases, pm.gc.ca): 13 May 2025 'Prime Minister Carney announces new Ministry' (day 15 after 28 Apr 2025); 20 Nov 2019 'Prime Minister welcomes new Cabinet' (day 30 after 21 Oct 2019); 26 Oct 2021 'Prime Minister welcomes new Cabinet' (day 36 after 20 Sep 2021). In all three the incumbent Prime Minister continued. The last change of government after a general election, the Trudeau ministry sworn 4 Nov 2015 (day 16 after 19 Oct), is from Wikipedia, not checked. No expectedFrom is set because the cabinet can be sworn before the final result.", "source": null, "observedAt": null, "observedSource": null } ], "sources": [ { "url": "https://enr.elections.ca/National.aspx?lang=e", "role": "results-live", "kind": "other", "kindReason": "no election or results marker", "resolvable": false, "origin": "race", "note": "Elections Canada election night results site (ENR), not a page for this election: its root shows whatever event is current (checked 2 Oct 2026: the 31 Aug 2026 by-elections, 'The validated results ... are posted here'). The same district pages carry preliminary results on election night, then results validated by the returning officer (with a 'Validation Date'), then judicially certified results after a recount; the tab-delimited download https://enr.elections.ca/DownloadResults.aspx (EventResults.txt) labels each row 'preliminary', 'validated' or 'judicially certified'. No URL for the 2029 event is predicted.", "check": null }, { "url": "https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=ele&dir=pas&document=ge&lang=e", "role": "results-final", "kind": "other", "kindReason": "no election or results marker", "resolvable": false, "origin": "race", "note": "Elections Canada 'Past elections' index of general elections (results index, not a page for this election). Checked 2 Oct 2026: it lists general elections up to the 45th (28 Apr 2025), whose Official Voting Results report sits at https://www.elections.ca/res/rep/off/ovrGE45/home.html. The official voting results report is published months after polling day; the legal final act is each returning officer's return of the writ, gazetted by the Chief Electoral Officer (s.317).", "check": null }, { "url": "https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/e-2.01/FullText.html", "role": "timetable", "kind": "other", "kindReason": "no election or results marker", "resolvable": false, "origin": "race", "note": "Canada Elections Act, S.C. 2000, c. 9 (Justice Laws, current to 2026-09-21, last amended 2026-09-16): s.56.1 (fixed date; Governor General's power to dissolve unaffected), s.56.2 (alternate day), s.57(1.2)(c) (polling 36-50 days after the writ), s.62(c) (validation not later than seven days after polling day), s.128 (voting hours by time zone), ss.293-297 (validation and adjournments), ss.300-301 (recounts), s.313 (return of the writ), s.317 (Canada Gazette), ss.524-527 (contested elections).", "check": null }, { "url": "https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=rep%2Foff%2Fsta_ge45&document=p3&lang=e", "role": "timetable", "kind": "other", "kindReason": "no election or results marker", "resolvable": false, "origin": "race", "note": "Report on the 45th General Election, ch. 3 'Closing the General Election': 2025 validation (341 districts by 5 May; NWT 9 May; Nunavut 16 May), four judicial recounts, Terrebonne contested-election application of 23 May 2025.", "check": null }, { "url": "https://gazette.gc.ca/rp-pr/p1/2025/2025-05-26-x13/html/extra13-eng.html", "role": "timetable", "kind": "other", "kindReason": "election page without a results marker", "resolvable": false, "origin": "race", "note": "Canada Gazette Part I, Vol. 159, Extra No. 13 (26 May 2025): the last returns of members elected at the 45th general election (Northwest Territories, Nunavut, Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore, Terra Nova—The Peninsulas), notice signed 23 May 2025. The first such notice was Extra No. 7, 9 May 2025.", "check": null }, { "url": "https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=med&dir=pre&document=apr2825&lang=e", "role": "timetable", "kind": "other", "kindReason": "election page without a results marker", "resolvable": false, "origin": "race", "note": "Elections Canada news release 28 Apr 2025, voting hours (local time): Newfoundland and Atlantic 8:30 a.m.-8:30 p.m.; Eastern 9:30-9:30; Central (except Saskatchewan) 8:30-8:30; Mountain and Saskatchewan 7:30-7:30; Pacific 7:00-7:00.", "check": null }, { "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/46th_Canadian_federal_election", "role": "see-also", "kind": "other", "kindReason": "no election or results marker", "resolvable": false, "origin": "race", "check": null }, { "url": "https://enr.elections.ca/", "role": "results-index", "kind": "emb_home", "kindReason": "site root: cannot answer a results question", "resolvable": false, "origin": "authority", "check": null }, { "url": "https://enr.elections.ca/DownloadResults.aspx", "role": "open-data", "kind": "results_index", "kindReason": "results section without an election code", "resolvable": false, "origin": "authority", "check": null }, { "url": "https://www.elections.ca/", "role": "authority-home", "kind": "emb_home", "kindReason": "site root: cannot answer a results question", "resolvable": false, "origin": "authority", "check": null } ], "page_activity": [], "government": { "earliestUtc": "2029-10-16T02:00:00Z", "precedentDays": [ 15, 30, 36 ], "note": "Days from polling day to the post-election swearing-in of the cabinet: 2025 (15), 2019 (30), 2021 (36), from pm.gc.ca releases; 2015 (16, change of government) from Wikipedia, not checked. An incumbent Prime Minister needs no new appointment, so a market must define the event (a new ministry, or a Prime Minister sworn in) and set its deadline beyond the longest precedent." }, "results": [], "live_count": null, "url": "https://electionindex.org/election/canada-legislative-2029#house" } ] }, "meta": { "dataset_version": "2026-10-02.be7d6f40", "built_at": "2026-10-02T15:42:24Z", "generated_at": "2026-10-02T18:13:24.598Z", "licence": "CC BY 4.0: credit \"Global Election Index (electionindex.org)\" and link to https://electionindex.org", "docs": "https://electionindex.org/docs" } }